Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A sweeping cold front moving through the U.S., another system later this week and more for next week, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

QUIETER COUPLE OF DAYS IN MIDWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM

A front cleared the Midwest on Monday after bringing scattered showers. Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures follow going into the holiday weekend. The drier trend will not last though as another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week and potential for another system to move through in the middle and end of next week. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development where severe weather and flooding have not occurred. A front is stalling out near the Red River, where showers continue for the next couple of days. Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week.

SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Though some showers may be possible in the Northern Plains over the next couple of days, most areas will be drier. However, a system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

DELTA REMAINING SHOWERY, WATCHING GULF FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM

Scattered showers developed in the Delta over the weekend and some areas of heavy rain increased the soil moisture back to excessive in some areas. A front will push through on Tuesday, though the western end of it may bring showers into the region throughout the week with a great deal of uncertainty. We will also have to watch the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf later this week or weekend; a feature not captured well by models.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Several more systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the Canadian Prairies through next week, but will probably only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that is for those across the south and east, that could be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

COLD IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain over the last few weeks with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week. Colder temperatures this week should be south of the main specialty crop areas. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

HOTTER, DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE THIS WEEK, CHANGES THIS WEEKEND

Hotter and drier conditions continued in Europe over the weekend, favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system will move through northern areas Wednesday and Thursday and could bring some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO HAVE LIMITED SHOWERS

Areas of isolated showers continue in the Black Sea region this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas this weekend and especially next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES IN AUSTRALIA

Many areas in Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A system is building off the East Coast, but much of its rainfall will be over coastal areas and not the inland wheat belt. Only limited showers will move through over the next couple of weeks, but rainfall will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CENTRAL CHINA FORECAST TO SEE BETTER RAINFALL THIS WEEK

Some showers went through central China over the weekend, overall favorable for corn and soybean development. The pattern stays active there with more areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week and possibly into next week. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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