DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with troughs in the Midwest, off the coast of California, and in the North Pacific. All features will progress eastward throughout the week at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place throughout the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East. This may be a little more of a stagnant pattern through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar for this week, but not for next week. I will favor the European.

A system will continue to slowly progress through the Midwest Sunday and may have its front stall out in the region or continue southward into the Southeast. Models are unsure. Additional disturbances will move through early, mid, and late next week across the north, keeping the showers going there. A tropical storm may develop this weekend from an old stalled boundary near the Gulf or Southeast coasts that will need monitoring as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...119 AT TOPOCK, AZ

LOW MON...27 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...TALLAHASSEE, FL 2.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with troughs in the Midwest, off the coast of California, and in the North Pacific. All features will progress eastward throughout the week at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place throughout the week. The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East. This may be a little more of a stagnant pattern through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar for this week, but not for next week. I will favor the European.

A system will continue to slowly progress through the Midwest Sunday and may have its front stall out in the region or continue southward into the Southeast. Models are unsure. Additional disturbances will move through early, mid, and late next week across the north, keeping the showers going there. A tropical storm may develop this weekend from an old stalled boundary near the Gulf or Southeast coasts that will need monitoring as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though some showers may be possible over the next couple of days, most areas will be drier. However, a system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through.

Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development where severe weather and flooding have not occurred. A front is stalling out near the Red River, where showers continue for the next couple of days, Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front cleared the region on Monday after bringing scattered showers. Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures follow going into the holiday weekend. The drier trend will not last though as another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week and potential for another system to move through in the middle and end of next week. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers developed over the weekend and some areas of heavy rain increased the soil moisture back to excessive in some areas. A front will push through on Tuesday, though the western end of it may bring showers into the region throughout the week with a great deal of uncertainty. We will also have to watch the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf later this week or weekend; a feature not captured well by models.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Several more systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the region through next week, but will probably only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that is for those across the south and east, that could be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain over the last few weeks with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week. Colder temperatures this week should be south of the main specialty crop areas. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes over the last week or two with more occurring this week as well. However, that has likely had little to no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment.

Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast until a front moves through this weekend, but even that is forecast to have little precipitation, too. A better chance may occur next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions continued over the weekend, favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system will move through northern areas Wednesday and Thursday and could bring some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of isolated showers continue this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas this weekend and especially next week.

With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A system is building off the East Coast, but much of its rainfall will be over coastal areas and not the inland wheat belt. Only limited showers will move through over the next couple of weeks, but rainfall will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers went through central China over the weekend, overall favorable for corn and soybean development. The pattern stays active there with more areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week and possibly into next week. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers far south Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, mostly south.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal south and near to above normal north through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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