Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front bringing areas of heavy rain from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, heat for the Eastern U.S., a change to the pattern for next week, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN

A stalled front continues to bring areas of heavy rainfall to northern areas of the Midwest on Thursday, before getting pushed southward by a system moving along it for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. And then another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have seen some spotty showers, but many areas have had a chance to dry out a bit. The combination of heat and soil moisture should improve growth for many in the region. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through.

FRONT FINALLY MOVING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front has produced some areas of heavy rain across the Central Plains this week. That front will shift down into the Southern Plains for Thursday and Friday after these areas have gotten a chance to dry out a bit. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week with more showers and we could see it stall across Texas or Oklahoma for a few days as well. Rainfall continues to be largely favorable for corn, soybeans, and other spring-sewn crops, but is having a negative impact on some wheat areas that are in the midst of harvest that has been delayed.

MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Northern Plains this week, hitting some areas with needed rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

DELTA WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS

Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers across the Delta through the weekend. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

MORE RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, AMOUNTS LIMITED

Another system will move through the Canadian Prairies Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers. But even with these systems, showers are coming via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this past weekend and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Some limited damage may have occurred. More systems are slated to move through later next week and weekend and at least continue chances for rain.

COLD AIR, RECENT FROSTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Cold air that moved into southern Brazil produced frosts as far north as Sao Paulo earlier this week, which may have damaged specialty crops in the area. Corn that saw frost was mostly mature and not likely damaged by it. Another front has moved into the south and will stay active through the weekend. More cold air will move in behind it for next week, but is not currently forecast to move very far north to have much of an impact as of the current forecast.

HEAT CONTINUING IN EUROPE WITH LIMITED NORTHERN SHOWERS

Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through earlier this week with showers across the north, and another is doing so for Thursday. But temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing. Rain does not look to return until later next week and may not be very widespread either.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Waves of isolated showers have been moving through the Black Sea region over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

DRIER AGAIN THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Many areas in Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times over the next two weeks. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

BETTER RAINFALL FORECAST FOR CENTRAL CHINA

Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system is moving through there Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest some, but would be beneficial for corn and soybean development. The forecast has turned more active with systems becoming more frequent this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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