Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued wet weather across the south, a change in the forecast that keeps the wet conditions going next week, frost potential in Brazil, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MIDWEST

An upper-level low-pressure system continues to spin around the Midwest and bring showers through Friday. Amounts have not been or will be heavy for very many areas, but could be along the Ohio River Thursday night into Friday. That would be unfavorable for those still yet to plant. Another big system is forecast to move through the region next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and could bring another couple of rounds of heavier rainfall. Some areas that are a bit too dry will enjoy the rain, while others seeking a break may not. Cooler temperatures in the region this week will rise next week ahead of the system, but fall back toward normal behind it.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain will push out of the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday after more than a week of really good amounts for a lot of the region. That should have boosted soil moisture and reduced drought across the vast majority of the region, though it also came with some severe weather and eastern Oklahoma and Texas have seen flooding. Another system will move through early-to-mid next week and models have been increasing the precipitation with this system. That could mean another round of some heavier rain in needed areas, while keeping the southeast too wet.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the Northern Plains. The next system should move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and then a burst of some cooler temperatures for a few days. Another system should move through next weekend as well, keeping the region supplied with chances for beneficial rainfall.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers continue in the Delta through Friday and have potential for severe weather as well. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week but that is ahead of yet another system that is now forecast to bring through more rounds of heavy rain and potential severe weather.

DRIER STRETCH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUES

Drier weather in the Canadian Prairies for much of this week should have allowed for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some good rain previously. A disturbance will bring showers through Thursday night and Friday. Models are pushing a system through Sunday and Monday, but are now limiting precipitation across the region. That will allow more fieldwork to get done, but some parts of the region may be getting a bit too dry. The pattern does favor another system moving through later next week, though.

FROST POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front produced heavy rain over southern and south-central Brazil earlier this week, with meaningful rainfall for some safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. The corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air moving in behind the front could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

NORTHERN EUROPE NEEDS MORE RAINFALL, MAY GET IT NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers continue to move over northern Europe into the weekend, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which need it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though models are backing off on that a touch. The rain would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months and winter wheat is progressing through reproductive stages.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION IN ANOTHER DRY STRETCH

Heavy rain fell over western areas of the Black Sea region over the last few days and the system responsible will be slow to move this week. It is spreading showers farther east through Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia as it passes through this weekend. Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier. A system or two may be possible next week, though models are unsure about the coverage with the rainfall.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

A couple of systems will bring showers to Australia for the end of the month and early June, targeting Western Australia with the best coverage and amounts. Rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year in the east, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment that are facing drought.

CENTRAL CHINA STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Central China continues to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development, while northeast China has had better precipitation but is still below normal. Systems continue to bypass central China going into June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and sometimes in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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