DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the East with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Midwest trough will slowly pinwheel east through the weekend while a ridge develops in the West. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend, maintaining the eastern trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska probably take a short break before sending more disturbances through Canada later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country early next week with scattered showers that may scrape across the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...109 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...14 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...CLEVELAND, OH 1.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the East with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Midwest trough will slowly pinwheel east through the weekend while a ridge develops in the West. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend, maintaining the eastern trough. But probably take a short break before sending more through Canada later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country early next week with scattered showers that may scrape across the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A recent system has produced widespread heavy precipitation across most of the region, which is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and thunderstorms earlier this week favored Nebraska with needed rainfall. Another system moves through slowly with showers starting Thursday night and continuing into early next week. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is leaving the east on Thursday after bringing widespread heavy precipitation throughout most of the region, favoring drier areas in the northwest. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well.

Those that still have planting to do could be delayed across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front brought more showers and thunderstorms to the region earlier this week and some spotty showers continue over the north on Thursday. Yet another system will bring showers in on Friday and continue into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): The skies are drying over Saskatchewan and Manitoba while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost this week that has not been a major concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. The front will get a push north next week, getting into south-central Brazil before dying out. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment.

Showers should make it into Parana as well and likely Mato Grosso do Sul in the middle of next week to provide some benefit for filling safrinha corn.

Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country this past weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. Some additional showers will move through with a front this weekend and then a bigger push early next week with more widespread precipitation. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment. Colder air that follows behind next week's system will likely cause areas of frost, but is not of particularly concern to agriculture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues across the Mediterranean with scattered showers over the next couple of days. Systems moving through northern areas now, this weekend, and next week should bring through some beneficial rainfall, though amounts are not expected to be widespread heavy like the region needs. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK and the region needs rain quickly for reproductive winter grains.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Streaks of scattered showers have brought some needed rainfall over eastern areas of the region, though long-term deficits remain. Additional showers will likely occur for western areas into next week.

Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt, though some showers are moving through the west and far east over the next couple of days. Despite this, rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Outside of some light showers Thursday into Friday, very little precipitation is forecast here through the end of the month. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Temperatures will be increasing next week to be more favorable.

Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday, mostly south. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers east through Friday, southwest Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

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