Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought reduction in the North-Central U.S., continued wet weather across the south, and patches of dryness in Europe, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DROUGHT REDUCTION FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST

A system is leaving the eastern Midwest on Thursday after bringing widespread heavy precipitation throughout most of the region, favoring drier areas in the northwest and reducing drought and dryness there. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. Those that still have planting to do could be delayed across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

MORE RAIN COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and thunderstorms earlier this week favored Nebraska with needed rainfall. Another system moves through the Central and Southern Plains slowly with showers continuing into early next week. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

DROUGHT REDUCTION IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A recent system has produced widespread heavy precipitation across most of the region, which is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and has reduced drought. Some areas of the Dakotas are no longer in drought, but other areas have long-term deficits that still reflect drought conditions. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend but go on a warming trend next week.

MORE RAIN FOR DELTA THIS WEEKEND

A front brought more showers and thunderstorms to the Delta earlier this week and some spotty showers continue over the north on Thursday. Yet another system will bring showers in on Friday and continue into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

DRIER STRETCH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The skies are drying over Saskatchewan and Manitoba while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost this week that has not been a major concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL PRODUCING SHOWERS

A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. The front will get a push north next week, getting into south-central Brazil before dying out. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana as well and likely Mato Grosso do Sul in the middle of next week to provide some benefit for filling safrinha corn. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

NORTHERN EUROPE STILL TOO DRY, BUT SHOWERS ON THE WAY

A system continues across the Mediterranean with scattered showers over the next couple of days. Systems moving through northern Europe now, this weekend, and next week should bring through some beneficial rainfall, though amounts are not expected to be widespread heavy like the region needs. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK and the region needs rain quickly for reproductive winter grains.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING INTO ANOTHER DRIER STRETCH

Streaks of scattered showers have brought some needed rainfall over eastern areas of the Black Sea region, though long-term deficits remain. Additional showers will likely occur for western areas into next week. Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

PATCHY RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of Australia's wheat belt, though some showers are moving through the west and far east over the next couple of days. Despite this, rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Outside of some light showers Thursday into Friday, very little precipitation is forecast here through the end of the month. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Temperatures will be increasing next week to be more favorable. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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