Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Southeast, fantastic planting conditions but now very dry soils in the northwestern Corn Belt, and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM AND GETTING SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

It was dry in the Midwest over the weekend with very warm temperatures building in the northwest. That will spread eastward this week. An upper-low in the Southeast will spread showers into eastern areas over the next several days. Then a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early next week with more rainfall potential that would be beneficial as well.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEBRASKA

It was largely dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with warmer temperatures north and much cooler temperatures south. Some spotty showers did occur across the south, though. A larger system will move across the Northern Plains midweek and could bring showers to the region. Nebraska has a good chance of seeing some much-needed rainfall. A better system should move through this weekend into early next week though. That has a much better chance at more widespread showers, which would include Nebraska as well. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall, but Nebraska certainly needs it. This pattern is better for that.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR DRYING NORTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Northern Plains over the weekend, allowing for a lot of fieldwork to get done. It was also a little breezy though, and that may have slowed some folks down due to blowing dust. Some streaks of showers will be possible early this week. But a larger system will move through with more widespread and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Showers may linger over eastern areas on Friday. Models disagree on the coverage and amounts, but this should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well. If it disappoints, then we could see drought returning.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE VERY WET

Scattered showers and mild temperatures occurred in the Delta over the weekend. Showers should leave on Monday and a short dry stretch is expected. A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through into Saturday as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall.

SHOWERS RETURN TO CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some limited showers developed in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, favorable for fieldwork. Some breezy conditions may have slowed down some planting due to blowing dust, but overall, it has been easier to get seed in the ground and most areas are ahead of schedule so far. This week will be more chaotic as several impulses bring scattered showers through the region throughout the week and may be heavy in the east later this week. Temperatures will be trending colder throughout the week as well and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for precipitation as well. That could slow down the planting progress, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

DRIER AGAIN IN BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front moved through southern areas with showers over the weekend, which waned as the front made it into central Brazil. Much of the week looks rather dry, but another front may move into southern areas early next week.

GERMANY BEING MISSED IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A low in the Atlantic brought showers across Spain, France, and the UK over the weekend and will continue showers here through Wednesday and Spain through Thursday, being beneficial for most areas. A front dropped some showers over Poland this weekend, which was very much needed as well. Another system will drop showers through eastern areas later this week and could stick around for several days if it gets cutoff from the jet stream. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Bands of showers fell across the Black Sea region over the weekend as a couple of disturbances continued to move through, a continuation from last week. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting precipitation back into the region. It's also coming with a bunch of colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west throughout the week. Showers will continue periodically in this more active pattern as well.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

It was largely dry for wheat and canola areas of Australia over the weekend, with some limited showers on the East Coast. Despite some spotty showers in the east later this week, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall and largely above-normal temperatures, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Scattered showers fell on the North China Plain late last week, but many areas saw little rainfall and the trend has been for much drier conditions for central portions of the country. A few systems will move through this week and next, but with limited rainfall potential in the central, which may stress wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape with more seasonable temperatures. But they will be on a much cooler streak later this week into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast, but could be possible as the event nears.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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