Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the South and East, fantastic planting conditions in the North-Central U.S., and patches of dryness in China and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

RAIN LEAVING EASTERN MIDWEST

A cutoff low-pressure center system continues over eastern portions of the Midwest with showers Tuesday, leaving early on Wednesday. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The chances for precipitation later this week and beyond are more limited, but will still be possible. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long, then we may see dryness becoming an issue.

MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low moved into the Southern Plains Sunday night and continues to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through Thursday. The rain will help lessen the drought in parts of the region, but could make for more severe weather and flooding for Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska will remain drier though, which continues to see drought building.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front is moving through the Northern Plains with scattered showers on Tuesday. Chances for showers are limited afterward until maybe the middle of next week. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn't get wetter next week.

MORE RAIN FOR THE WET DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain fell over the weekend across the southern Delta and another upper-level low will bring through periods of showers through at least Friday, which may include more areas of heavy rain. Flooding may pop back up across the region and keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high again this week. Drier conditions are forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some limited showers will move through the eastern Canadian Prairies with a front on Tuesday. More light and spotty showers are possible in the east on Friday as well. But the region should see very good planting conditions. With overall good soil moisture in most of the region, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers.

WET SEASON OVER IN BRAZIL

With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul this week with a couple of Argentine fronts. But the best chance will be a front sweeping northward Friday through the weekend to get some showers into the country.

SHOWERS RETURN TO ARGENTINA

Overall, it was drier in Argentina over the weekend. That was favorable for additional corn and soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting. Several fronts are forecast to move through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt harvest a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system in the west and a front in the east combined to produce widespread showers across much of Europe this past weekend. Showers will continue across the south, especially the southeast, throughout much of the week as well. Some areas across the north could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well.

IMPROVED FORECAST FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend and brought showers to the northwest. Several disturbances are forecast to move along the front this week and probably next week as well, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the south and east. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. Northwestern Russia and Belarus stand the best chances for that, but wheat is much further behind developmentally there.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

It was largely dry in Australia over the weekend, though some coastal areas in the east saw showers. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Some patchy areas of rain developed in China over the weekend, but mostly for areas that are not concerned much about soil moisture. Areas on the North China Plain have been much drier and are in need of some rainfall. Several systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, but the potential for showers is spotty and mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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