Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the central U.S. causing planting delays for corn and soybeans, but soil moisture improvements for wheat, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Black Sea, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Some showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, allowing some to dry out enough to get some fieldwork in. A significant storm system will move through Monday and Tuesday, with widespread showers and severe weather. The front will continue showers through parts of the region through Friday, especially across the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter than eastern areas, which may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

DAILY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and continue on Monday with a system moving through. The system will cause a front to get stalled across the south, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible across southern areas on Friday. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the region over the weekend. The rainfall is helping ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

DROUGHT-REDUCING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers moved into the Northern Plains over the weekend but were more explosive later Sunday. That continues Monday, creating some areas of heavy rain and possible severe weather. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall could improve drought in some areas but also cause wet conditions and delays to planting.

MORE RAIN FOR THE DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend and many areas remain wet, causing difficult fieldwork conditions. The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the region on Tuesday and linger for much of the week, causing periods of showers and thunderstorms that may turn out to be severe and create some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions.

GOOD WEATHER FOR FILLING CORN IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers moved into Brazil with a front over the weekend, maintaining soil moisture for corn that is going from pollination into grain fill. The front will move north and out of the primary growing areas by midweek but continue rainfall for northern areas into the weekend. Another front may move through late in the week with some additional showers. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Limited showers went through some southern areas of Argentina over the weekend but should not have disrupted the continued corn and soybean harvest. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May.

DRIER IN EUROPE, BUT MORE RAIN COMING

Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend, but missed the northeast again, which has become much drier. The front-half of the week will be dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas late this week. Eastern areas are favored to see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend with some limited showers and colder temperatures. Temperatures will waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through New South Wales over the weekend, which was needed for some drier spots where winter wheat and canola are being planted. But many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain. Showers will be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas later this week and weekend. More inland areas will need the rain, however.

CENTRAL CHINA REMAINING DRY

Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.