Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily rain chances with severe weather across the Central U.S. causing planting delays but soil moisture improvements for wheat, continued showers in Brazil, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the Midwest has eased drought and increased soil moisture but also is causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will continue to move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns. A system on Monday and Tuesday may produce widespread severe weather. However, the region will also see some dry days between systems and could be enough time to get out and do some work for those that aren't too wet. The pattern should begin to quiet down to some degree after next week.

DAILY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers and thunderstorms have been widespread across the Central and Southern Plains this week, producing pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, including for western Kansas, which has been very dry lately. Several more days of widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast into next week that will likely bring more rainfall to needed areas, but also with potential for severe weather and delays to planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought showers to the southern portions of the Northern Plains on Thursday, which were moderate in some spots. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through into Monday. Rainfall amounts will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region and could be heavy enough to reduce some of the drought. Cooler temperatures have been in place most of the week but should increase over the weekend before falling briefly behind the system early next week. Temperatures will be on the rise afterward in early May. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

FRONT STALLED IN THE DELTA

A front remains stalled in the Delta, bringing periods of showers Friday and probably through the weekend as well. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week has not been helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region, though water levels are falling across the north. The rainfall this week could stall that progress in some areas, especially for those in the south.

WET SEASON EXTENDED IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. A front is passing through Friday and Saturday with more widespread showers, and another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above-normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest in Argentina. A front will bring some showers through Friday and Saturday, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable for fieldwork. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

WET PATTERN FOR EUROPE LARGELY MISSING POLAND, DRIER NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last two weeks. That has favored winter wheat development but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain and only saw pockets of moderate rain on Thursday. The pattern should be quieter and warmer next week with a system returning showers to western areas later next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth in the Black Sea region. Limited showers have been moving through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth, and better for corn planting.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas of Australia are still dry and need more rain despite some recent showers. A front brought through some areas of showers to the west on Wednesday and is moving through with patchy showers to the east to close out the week. But more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall, but that may be slowing down.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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