Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily rain chances across the U.S. are causing planting delays but soil moisture is improving, and wetter conditions in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the Midwest have eased drought and increased soil moisture, but are also causing limitations to planting. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern that could continue these planting concerns.

DAILY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The southwestern Plains, and especially western Kansas, have been rather dry lately. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some limited showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and Monday. Some showers may continue for a couple of days before another system clears out the showers on Thursday. More widespread showers should return over the weekend with another system moving through. Rainfall amounts will not be enough to ease drought but will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region. Some cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but nothing overly cold. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

FRONT STUCK IN THE DELTA

A front moved into the Delta on Sunday night with scattered showers. The front will be stuck in the region for most of the week, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region. The rainfall this week could continue that, though water levels are forecast to drop later this week.

WET SEASON EXTENSION IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers should be limited early this week but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by late week. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn finishes pollination and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Limited showers went through southern Argentina over the weekend, but most areas have stayed dry. Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

WET PATTERN FOR EUROPE MISSING POLAND

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Conditions have been good for planting in the Black Sea region, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for wheat growth.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Limited showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas there are still very dry and need more rain. The same goes for much of the northeast, which has been much drier over the last couple of weeks. A couple of disturbances could bring through some areas of showers, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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