Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued flooding in the Mid-South and Midwest, drought relief for many from last week's heavy rain, but limited rain for the southwestern Plains dealing with drought and a questionable rainfall forecast in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST STILL RECOVERING FROM FLOODING

Flooding continues across the southern end of the Midwest, which was slowed from receding due to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last couple of days. Fieldwork is also on hold for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. Another system will move through Sunday and Monday, but likely with limited precipitation. Another is forecast for later next week that could have more widespread rain and thunderstorms. Overall, below normal rainfall through next week, even with these couple of systems moving through, should be more beneficial for draining soils. Temperatures will continue to fluctuate quite a bit though, and may give some pause for doing fieldwork or planting until more consistent warmth settles in.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dry conditions this week with rising temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains have been favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development. Isolated showers are possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent and do not suggest large amounts of rain. That could lead to losses of soil moisture with temperatures largely above normal.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will bring scattered showers through the Northern Plains this weekend. A couple of systems will bring showers next week, too. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. Spring planting will be increasing, though temperature swings could cause some to pause a bit and wait for more consistent warmth.

FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE DELTA

Extreme wetness and flooding continue in the Delta for a while across the north. Some additional showers will be possible with a couple of systems next week, but below-normal precipitation should aid the draining process. Fieldwork will be slow to recover, and some replanting will have to be done due to the flooding.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, QUESTIONABLE RAINFALL

A front moving through this week has been producing scattered showers in Brazil, but mostly light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the country needs. Another pair of fronts will move through next week with much of the same. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving up from Argentina, typical for this time of year. Models seem to think these fronts could contain significant precipitation, but that has not panned out so far. That below-normal rainfall forecast is not favorable for corn, as many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front will move through Argentina Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers and mostly across the south. The same goes for a front early next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the overall drier forecast is more favorable for harvest. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

NORTHERN EUROPE TOO DRY, WETTER NEXT WEEK

Eastern Europe has seen some periods of showers this week. Recent fronts have been bringing in some colder air to the east as well, causing areas of snow and frost. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern will become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

COLDER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION LEAVING THIS WEEKEND

Cold air this week has been causing frosts in the Black Sea region. While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently as well. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, long-term drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development. A more active period next week in Europe may bring additional showers, but the heavier rainfall should be off to the west.

DRIER IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia has seen improvements to soil moisture as winter wheat and canola planting should commence shortly. Northeastern areas have seen much needed drier weather after last week's heavy rainfall that may have caused damage and delays to the cotton and sorghum harvest. The rainfall was good for some areas that have been much drier ahead of wheat and canola planting. Western areas will see some showers this weekend. Southeastern areas are still too dry and need to see some rain prior to fall planting, but their next chance doesn't come until late next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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