Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding in the Mid-South and Midwest, drought relief for many from last week's heavy rain, but limited rain for the southwestern Plains dealing with drought and below-normal rainfall in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SOME RAIN FOR SOGGY MIDWEST

Flooding continues across the southern end of the Midwest. That will pause thoughts of fieldwork for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. A small disturbance is bringing through some showers Thursday. Most areas will see little to no rain, but some streaks of moderate rain will unfortunately fall in some of these wet areas. Another system will move through Sunday and Monday, but likely with limited precipitation. Another is forecast for later next week. Overall, below normal rainfall through next week, even with these couple of systems moving through, should be more beneficial for draining soils. Temperatures will continue to fluctuate quite a bit though, and may give some pause for doing fieldwork or planting until more consistent warmth settles in.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Much of the Central and Southern Plains received good precipitation from a long, drawn-out system last week except for western Kansas, which did not see much. Cold air that filtered in behind the system produced areas of frosts and freezes over the weekend into early this week, which may have been damaging to some more advanced wheat in the south. Dry conditions this week with rising temperatures are favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development with drought still remaining in many areas. Isolated showers are possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent and do not suggest large amounts of rain that some areas still need a lot more of.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers passed through the Northern Plains the last couple of days and a system is likely to bring scattered showers this weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances for an active pattern to bring more rainfall going forward, but an active pattern hasn't done enough to eliminate drought. Spring planting will be increasing, though temperature swings could cause some to pause a bit and wait for more consistent warmth.

FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE DELTA

Extreme wetness and flooding continue for a while in the Delta. Draining these areas will take a long time. Some showers will move through northern areas Thursday and some additional showers will be possible with a couple of systems next week, but below-normal precipitation should overall aid the draining process. Fieldwork will be slow to recover, and some replanting will have to be done due to the flooding.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL

A front moving through Brazil this week has been producing scattered showers, but mostly light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the country needs. Another pair of fronts will move through next week. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving up from Argentina, typical for this time of year. That below-normal rainfall forecast is not favorable for corn, as many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front will move through Argentina Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers and mostly across the south. The same goes for a front early next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the overall drier forecast is more favorable for fieldwork. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

NORTHERN EUROPE TOO DRY, WETTER NEXT WEEK

Eastern Europe continues to see some periods of showers this week as a yet another front moves through. Recent fronts have been bringing in some colder air, causing areas of snow and frost. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern will become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

COLDER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Cold air will continue to be in place across the Black Sea region for the next few days. Many areas are seeing frosts. While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently and continue in waves this week with a few more fronts dropping through. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development. A more active period next week in Europe may bring additional showers, but the heavier rainfall should be off to the west.

DRIER IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia saw showers over the weekend, improving soil moisture as winter wheat and canola planting should commence shortly. Eastern areas have seen much needed drier weather after last week's heavy rainfall that may have caused damage and delays to the cotton and sorghum harvest. The rainfall was good for some areas that have been much drier ahead of wheat and canola planting. Western areas will see some showers this weekend. Southeastern areas are still too dry and need to see some rain prior to fall planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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