Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding in the Mid-South and Midwest, limited rain for the southwestern Plains, drier weather in Argentina, and limited showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLDER, SOME RAIN FOR SOGGY MIDWEST

Heavy rain over the last several days has led to widespread, intense flooding across the southern end of the Midwest. That will pause thoughts of fieldwork for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. Some showers will move through mid-late this week but should not be heavy for too many areas. Cold temperatures early this week will give way to much higher readings later this week and weekend. The pattern will change back to a more active one next week with seesawing temperatures and systems moving through bringing scattered showers. Southern areas will not particularly like to see more rainfall anytime soon, but areas in the north, which have seen improvements in soil moisture and reductions in drought will find it more favorable prior to planting.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system finally left the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, but not after dumping a bunch of rain and some snow across southern areas. Much of the region received good precipitation from this long, drawn-out system last week except for western Kansas, which did not see much. Cold air has filtered in behind the system and frosts and freezes have been common. Wheat is not particularly vulnerable, but some damage may have occurred. Dry conditions are forecast this week with rising temperatures, favorable for fieldwork, but not wheat development.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

It was quiet in the Northern Plains over the weekend. Isolated showers will pass through some areas Tuesday and Wednesday. And a system is likely to bring scattered showers this weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances going forward for an active pattern to help, but so far it hasn't.

DELTA DRIER AFTER HISTORIC RAINSTORM

Incredibly heavy rainfall finally ended for the Delta over the weekend. Some areas saw more than 10 inches of rain across the northern half of the region, which will take a long time to drain from fields and for local rivers to fall below flood stage. Some showers will move through northern areas mid-late this week, but a more active weather pattern next week could continue flooding potential. Fieldwork will be put on hold while floodwaters recede, which may take quite a long time. Some replanting will have to be done.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, BUT LIMITED RAINFALL

A front continued through central and northern Brazil over the weekend, but did not produce much precipitation. A front coming up from Argentina will produce more rain, but probably light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the region needs. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving through from Argentina, typical for this time of year. That below-normal forecast is not favorable for corn, where many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FAVORABLE FOR HARVEST

Frosts were noted across southern Argentina last Friday and Saturday, which may have caused some damage to a small portion of the crop there. A system developed over northern areas on Sunday, which continues there with showers for Monday as well. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the drier forecast is more favorable for fieldwork. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

NORTHERN EUROPE TOO DRY

Eastern Europe saw some showers over the weekend, which continues early this week. The front responsible also brought through some much colder air, causing areas of northeastern frost for a couple of days. An additional front may move through later this week with isolated showers and some light snow, and another may do something similar for the weekend, but much of the continent will be drier this week. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern may become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat, but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS, COLDER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A shot of cold air moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend and will continue to be in place most of the week. Northern areas are seeing frosts. While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently and continue in waves this week with a few more fronts dropping through. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development.

DRIER IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia saw showers over the weekend, improving soil moisture as winter wheat and canola planting should commence shortly. Eastern areas saw much needed drier weather over the weekend after last week's heavy rainfall that may have caused damage and delays to the cotton and sorghum crops. The rainfall was good for some areas here that have been much drier ahead of wheat and canola planting. This week will be much drier, though western areas may see some occasional showers. Southeastern areas are still too dry and need to see some rain prior to fall planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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