Ag Weather Forum

To go along with a heavy rainstorm that could produce historic flooding in the middle of the country over the next few days, a major severe weather event is expected on Wednesday, April 2. You can read more about the heavy rain in a blog here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded the Wednesday Convective Outlook to include a rare High Risk of severe weather in a small area of the mid-Mississippi Valley, though a larger area of Moderate Risk extends from southern Arkansas up through southern Indiana. High risks are not issued often. About 1-2 each year are issued on average, making this an extremely concerning severe weather day.

Severe thunderstorms have already formed early in the morning along a cold front moving through the Plains. As of 8 a.m. CDT, these storms extended from far north-central Texas northeast through northern Missouri. The SPC has multiple tornado watches active for the line of storms this morning and local National Weather Service offices have been placing warnings on the storms with regularity for large hail and damaging winds. Several reports of both have been noted since the overnight period when the storms first erupted.

However, this cold front will continue to push eastward into an area with much more moisture and heat throughout the day. Strong upper-level winds will help to organize thunderstorms either along or ahead of the cold front, leading to an intense risk of severe weather. Though massive hail and damaging winds are possible and overall likely from northern Texas up through the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, it is the risk of violent, long-track tornadoes the Center is most concerned about. In their 1 a.m. CDT discussion they noted, "Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, that scattered discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of the front near the instability axis during the mid- to late-afternoon ... As supercells move eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes. Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid-Mississippi Valley. The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes."

This is already the second High Risk notice the SPC has issued for 2025. The first one was issued for March 15 where several long-track tornadoes developed across Mississippi and Alabama, with other tornadoes being reported in adjacent areas of Louisiana, Tennessee and Georgia.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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