Ag Weather Forum

Several systems and stalled fronts will lead to days of heavy rain and thunderstorms across a portion of the Mid-South and Ohio Valley this week. Rainfall exceeding 6 inches looks likely for a large portion of the region, which may result in historic flooding.

As alluded to at the end of last week's entry, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, this week is going to be another busy one for weather. Two bigger storm systems are going to move through the country that will produce all kinds of weather hazards. Some heavy snow across the north, strong winds in the Plains, and areas of severe weather east of the Rockies are all on the docket. But this week might be most remembered for the incredibly heavy rain that is forecast to fall.

A big system is already moving into the Plains on Tuesday. That system will move through the Midwest on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will form along its cold front both days. Areas of heavy rain and severe weather are forecast from this storm. But that front is going to get stuck from northeast Texas through the Ohio Valley and showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue building along that same area for both April 3 and April 4. Warm, moist air coming up from the Gulf should aid in producing widespread areas of heavy rainfall.

And then on April 5, the last storm system in the chain will move through the same areas along the front, producing more widespread heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. Rain from the front may not clear the region until April 6.

With essentially four to five days of nearly continuous rainfall, amounts will stack up very quickly. Model simulations are pointing toward widespread areas of 4-8 inches of rainfall from far northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Arkansas and southern Missouri up through Ohio, which includes much of Kentucky and western Tennessee. Where thunderstorms train -- or move over the same areas continuously -- those amounts are likely to be higher. The risk of training thunderstorms is much higher along the stalled frontal area.

It is hard to put a ceiling on how much rain may fall, but it appears possible that some areas may eclipse a foot of total rainfall during the extended event.

The National Weather Service currently has flood watches posted for much of these areas and may expand them as the front starts to set up on Thursday. All of these areas feed the Mississippi River and flooding along it south of St. Louis appears likely, not to mention the Ohio, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Arkansas Rivers and the local tributaries as well. With that much rain, the flooding could be historic.

There was another period where this same area had tremendous flooding, back in April 2011. That April was most remembered for its severe weather, in which multiple tornado outbreaks occurred, including the Super Outbreak that produced four maximum-rated EF-5 tornadoes late in the month. You can find a NOAA recap here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/….

However, that active weather pattern also produced heavy rainfall in much of the same areas from Arkansas up through the Ohio Valley. Some areas saw more than 300% of their normal April rainfall, or more than 10 inches of rain, though that fell over the entire month, not just a five-day period. Major flooding occurred along those rivers and many areas were deemed federal disaster areas. The same may occur with this series of rainfall as well.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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