Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several systems moving through the U.S. this week will bring areas of heavy rain to the Delta and Midwest, but limited shower chances in the southwestern Plains, the end of heavy rain in Argentina and a poor April forecast for Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEST

Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved through the Midwest over the weekend, including some severe weather and heavy rain. Northwestern areas saw improved soil moisture and drought reduction. A system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday should bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Showers may continue across the south to end the week while a system moves through this weekend with more rain potential. Some areas are getting a little too wet to do fieldwork, but the weather looks much drier next week, though it should be colder as well.

POTENTIAL SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but very little fell in the southwestern winter wheat areas. Another system will probably do something similar Tuesday into Wednesday. A larger storm system will move through in a couple of waves Thursday through this weekend and could be more favorable for southwestern areas. Drought in Nebraska is seeing some improvements lately, but if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A mix of heavy rain and snow fell across South Dakota over the weekend, but other areas of the Northern Plains were much drier. Another system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, with much of the same scattered showers, including areas of potential heavy snow, mostly across South Dakota. The two systems are making for improving soil moisture across the south, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Dryness that is forecast afterward won't be helpful either.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE DELTA

A system brought through scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and heavy rain to the Delta over the weekend. Showers are ending across the south early Monday, but another system will move through on Wednesday with more heavy rain and severe weather potential. A front could linger across the area for the rest of the week and showers may continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

RAIN COMING TO BRAZIL, BUT BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

Scattered showers fell across many areas of Brazil over the weekend, but heavy rain was not noted in very many areas. A front coming up from Argentina will get stuck across southern and central areas this week, moving farther north over the weekend. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for a lot of safrinha corn areas, but soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down in April. If it is too early, damage to pollinating and fill corn could result. The forecast for April continues to call for below normal amounts.

GETTING DRIER IN ARGENTINA

A front brought scattered showers through Argentina over the weekend, being favorable for immature corn and soybeans. However, that is an increasingly smaller percentage of the crop as it continues to head into maturity. Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process as well as harvest.

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE

Showers continued across southern Europe over the weekend while some northern areas also saw light showers moving through with a couple of fronts. Showers will linger across the south for most of the week, though northern areas are now starting to turn drier and could use some rain.

WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the Black Sea region. Limited showers have been moving through, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Waves of showers will continue for much of this week, however, so some improvement should be noted.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, but heavy rain in eastern Australia has delayed harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, the heavy rain is favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola that should start to be planted in April. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 28 will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more heavy rain potential in Queensland. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some minor showers are forecast there later this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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