Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A short lull in the U.S. with more active weather anticipated starting on Friday, but continued dryness in the southwestern Plains, increased rain in South America, and little rainfall for the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

QUIETER IN THE MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS

Streaks of showers will linger in the Midwest for much of the week, though it does appear to be drier for much of the region. A warmup is forecast late week ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow again. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. If it does, some areas may be a bit too wet to start on early fieldwork.

WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some streaks of light showers may move through the Central and Southern Plains, but most areas will be warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday into the weekend, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern may be more active next week, but the forecast favors northern areas over the Southwestern Plains.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

Isolated showers will fall in the Northern Plains this week as a couple of disturbances move through. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season and the recent rain isn't enough to turn the momentum around. However, a larger system this weekend could set up a more active pattern through the region going into April, which may bring some better precipitation chances.

WARMER AND DRIER IN DELTA NEXT FEW DAYS

A system moved through the Delta late Sunday into early Monday, which included some severe weather and heavy rainfall. Though some streaks of rain may pass through this week, warmer and drier conditions should be beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms.

RAIN INCREASING IN BRAZIL, SOIL MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL

A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around most of the week with continued showers, though they may continue to be light. Southern areas may get a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina this week, though heavy rain is not forecast. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn. This rain should help, but amounts are still below normal in most places.

WAVES OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front moved into Argentina over the weekend and several impulses will move through the country this week and produce beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes. Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall. The rain may cause delays to the corn harvest.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system moved into Europe late last week and spread showers eastward over the weekend. That process continues with several impulses working through the south this week. Some fronts may move through over the weekend with showers over the north. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain now.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe will bring some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that should target the northwest more than any others. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall.

HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for drier weather across eastern Australia. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in a few weeks and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A leftover front and tropical feature will continue with rain over Queensland most of this week, getting into northern New South Wales by the end of the week. The rain is forecast to be heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola. Western areas are forecast to stay unfavorably drier this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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