Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another big spring storm system moving through the U.S., but not much precipitation for hard red winter wheat, mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Another system is moving through the Midwest on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a band of heavy snow on its northern side. Strong winds are again causing blizzard conditions. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Additional small systems will move through this weekend into early next week with some additional showers.

BLIZZARD, STRONG WINDS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm continues in the Central Plains on Wednesday. A band of mostly snow is moving through northern areas and strong winds with the system could lead to blizzard conditions. More wind damage and a dust storm are moving across the south again. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for Friday into early next week but will produce very little for the region. Southwestern wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any significant precipitation. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

Southern areas of the Northern Plains saw some snow Tuesday with a system that is passing by to the south. A couple of smaller systems will move through Friday into next week, but with more limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through the large precipitation events that are needed.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Due to heavy rain from the weekend, water levels on the Mississippi River are rising again, though flooding is not expected outside of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers to the east. Soils are likely too wet to work for many areas this week, though. A system will move through with some showers possible on Wednesday, with another couple of small systems this weekend and early next week, keeping soil moisture high.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across central Brazil will remain somewhat stationary, producing rainfall into next week. While some heavier rain is forecast to fall, models have been over-predicting rainfall recently. Despite this, some needed rain looks to fall in some very dry areas in the east-central safrinha corn areas. West-central areas continue to see beneficial rainfall, but the south is now drier. We will see if a system coming up from Argentina can produce any showers here over the weekend into next week, but that is only a recent development on the models.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FRONT COMING THIS WEEKEND

Dry conditions continue in Argentina for most of this week, though a front will move through this weekend into early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms and some areas of heavy rain. Filling corn and soybeans have had some drier conditions recently and need more rain so this should be somewhat beneficial. It could delay the ongoing harvest, though.

QUIETER IN EUROPE NEXT FEW DAYS

Spain has been seeing beneficial rainfall this week, but most areas in Europe have been dry. However, another system moves into the west on Friday and is forecast to send several pieces of energy through the continent over the weekend into next week with beneficial widespread rainfall. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition in the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe brought through some streaks of precipitation over the weekend, but they were largely light. Extreme southwestern Russia got some better amounts precipitation Tuesday, but most areas have not had enough moisture for how dry soils continue to be. Some rainfall will move through the region starting this weekend and continue through next week, but only in patchy locations.

QUIETER IN AUSTRALIA FOR HARVEST

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest in eastern Australia, hoping for drier weather across the east to continue. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in about a month and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A front will move through with scattered showers across the southeast Thursday into Friday, but not into the northeast while the west stays drier as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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