Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another big spring storm system for the U.S., mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Another system will move through the Midwest on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a band of heavy snow on its northern side. Strong winds could again cause blizzard conditions. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Additional small systems will move through this weekend into early next week with some additional showers.

BLIZZARD, STRONG WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm will move through the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This one is more likely to bring some precipitation to the dry west, but in the form of snow, which could be heavy in some areas. Strong winds with the system could lead to blizzard conditions for a time as well as more wind damage and a possible dust storm again. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for late week and weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

Southern areas of the Northern Plains will continue to see snow Tuesday with a system that passes by to the south. A couple of smaller systems will move through later this week and weekend, but with more limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through massive precipitation events that are needed.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA AFTER HEAVY RAIN

Due to heavy rain from the weekend, water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to rise again, though flooding is not expected outside of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers to the east. Soils are likely too wet to work for many areas this week. A system will move through with some showers possible on Wednesday, with another couple of small systems this weekend and early next week, keeping soil moisture high.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across central Brazil will get a boost from another moving up from the south this week, but remain somewhat stationary, producing rainfall all week. While some heavier rain is forecast to fall, models have been over-predicting rainfall recently. Despite this, some needed rain looks to fall in some very dry areas in the east-central safrinha corn areas. West-central areas continue to see beneficial rainfall, but the south is now drier.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FRONT COMING THIS WEEKEND

Dry conditions are forecast in Argentina for most of this week, though a front will move through this weekend into early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Filling corn and soybeans have had some drier conditions recently and need more rain.

QUIETER IN EUROPE NEXT FEW DAYS

Systems moved through Europe last week, bringing needed rainfall across the south and portions of the east. Though Spain continues to see beneficial rainfall, most areas will dry out this week. However, another system moves into the west on Friday and is forecast to send some more energy eastward through the continent over the weekend into next week with beneficial widespread rainfall. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

An active pattern in Europe brought through some streaks of precipitation to the Black Sea region over the weekend, but they were largely light. Southwestern Russia gets some precipitation Tuesday, but likely not enough for how dry soils continue to be. Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture.

QUIETER IN AUSTRALIA FOR HARVEST

Dry weather over the weekend allowed eastern Australia to recover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for that the drier weather across the east continues. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in about a month and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. Only limited showers are forecast this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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