Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very warm temperatures and a big spring storm system for the U.S. later this week, mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

VERY WARM IN THE MIDWEST, BIG STORM COMING LATE WEEK

Very warm temperatures are in place across the Midwest this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. A massive storm system is forecast to move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow and strong winds. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which may help somewhat with the drought situation.

BOMB CYCLONE EYEING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER WARM WEEK

Drought still covers a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains. Much of this week will be warm and dry, with very limited showers in the southeast on Wednesday. A massive storm system is forecast to move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts. This region is more likely to see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SNOW TO END THE WEEK

Most of this week will continue to be quiet and warm in the Northern Plains, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. And strong winds could cause blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however.

SOIL MOISTURE IN DELTA REGION VERY HIGH

A system went through the Delta with scattered showers over the weekend, but water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries, which should help flood waters recede and soils to dry out somewhat. A small system will move through on Wednesday night with some showers, but a massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and just to the east on Saturday, which may be more significant and include severe weather. Additional systems next week could also add water to the region, which may slow down early planting.

FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend, bringing some needed moisture and a break from the heat. The front stays stalled out for a couple of days before lifting northward later in the week and bringing showers up to dry areas in east-central Brazil. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling with poor conditions. While rains fell this weekend, the dryness there continues to be a concern. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front lifted north out of Argentina over the weekend, ending the run of wet weather across the central and south. Northern areas got some rain, but not enough to limit the falling soil moisture there. Temperatures fell behind that front though, wiping out the stressful heat. Though a front will move through with limited showers Tuesday into Wednesday, overall dry conditions are expected for the next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

A series of systems will continue to move through Europe this week, producing scattered showers, particularly across the south and east. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now will not get overly heavy amounts. Very warm temperatures across the continent will allow more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas.

DRY BLACK SEA CONDITIONS CONCERNING FOR GREENING WHEAT

Temperatures continue to be very warm, encouraging green-up for winter wheat in the Black Sea region. However, soils are very dry and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will not translate to heavy precipitation across Ukraine or southwestern Russia, but showers will move through, and the region will take whatever it can get. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RECOVERING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED

Tropical Cyclone Alfred moved into southern Queensland, Australia on Friday and dumped a ton of rain around Brisbane, where flooding has been most extreme. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland have not seen nearly the heavy rainfall as coastal areas did, but could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Showers continue here in eastern Australia through Wednesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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