Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A progressive pattern in the U.S. that will bring more storm systems through the country, good rain but only in parts of central Brazil and heavy rain for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

STORM LEAVING MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, MORE TO COME

A strong spring storm continues to move through the Midwest on Wednesday, bringing widespread precipitation including heavy northwestern snow, and strong winds that may make for blizzard conditions. A smaller system will follow it Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Two more systems are forecast to move through next week, and the second one for late next week and weekend could be another big one. Temperatures are on a roller coaster type of pattern as several systems move through. Between systems, temperatures will be quite warm, quickly melting snow.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS RECOVERING FROM LARGE SYSTEM

A big spring storm moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with widespread precipitation, severe weather across the south, heavy snow across the north and strong winds that may have caused some damage. Another system will move through Thursday and Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through southern areas with showers on Saturday. Temperatures continue to waffle with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm.

NORTHERN PLAINS QUIETER, HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMING

A system brought strong winds and some isolated showers to the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Some heavier snow was found in a streak in eastern South Dakota. Temperatures may dip for a few days but still be mild. Another system will push by to the south Thursday but may only clip the far southern areas of the region with snow. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow this week.

MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS GETTING ANOTHER BOOST FROM BIG STORM

Water levels started falling on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers late last week and weekend. However, a big storm is moving through with widespread moderate to heavy rain and a couple more are forecast for next week. That could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks and keep water levels and soil moisture high, disrupting early planting.

HOT AND DRY SOUTHERN, EASTERN BRAZIL

Wet-season showers have been consistent in and around Mato Grosso in the middle of Brazil. But other areas have been much drier and hotter, leading to harsher conditions for immature corn and soybeans and the newly planted safrinha crop. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend and early next week, which may provide some better showers for more areas.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA ENDS THIS WEEKEND

Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February for Argentina but have also led to a flooding issue in some areas. A stalled front and parade of systems will continue to sweep across southern and central areas this week, easing more drought concerns, but potentially causing more flooding concerns as well. Northern areas have not had nearly as much rainfall and high temperatures near or eclipsing 100 degrees Fahrenheit have caused undue stress in these areas for immature corn and soybeans. The front will lift north through the country this weekend, leading to cooler and drier conditions next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continue in Spain for the rest of this week while other areas of Europe will be drier, favorable in the northwest, but not for portions of the east that are still too dry. A system will move through the continent this weekend into next week that is forecast to spread showers through much of the winter wheat growing areas, and a couple of additional impulses may continue showers over southern areas next week as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA

Cold air and a lack of significant snow cover have been an issue over the last couple of weeks for the Black Sea region, but temperatures are much warmer now, encouraging green-up in southern locations. However, soils are very dry and greening wheat will find overall poor conditions. The storm track is across the north this week, favoring some areas of Belarus and northwestern Russia, but with only light amounts forecast in most areas. There appears to be a better chance for meaningful rain later next week.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED HITTING EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The cotton and sorghum crops are heading toward maturity with early harvest starting up. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is off the east coast and is forecast to move into southern Queensland on Friday, which may produce major impacts for unharvested cotton and sorghum. Although coastal areas should get the brunt of the storm, some of which is already occurring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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