Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A progressive pattern in the U.S. is bringing a big storm to the Central and Southern Plains, good rain but only in parts of central Brazil and heavy rain for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS, BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST

A strong spring storm will move through the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring widespread precipitation, heavy northwestern snow and strong winds that may make for blizzard conditions. A smaller system will follow it for Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers and potential for snow. Temperatures are in a roller coaster type of pattern as several spring storm systems keep lining up to move through here in March.

SEVERE STORMS AND BLIZZARD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A big spring storm is moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with widespread precipitation, severe weather across the south, heavy snow across the north, and strong winds that could make for blizzard conditions. Another system will move through Thursday and Friday with snow across the north. A secondary piece to the system will move through southern areas with showers on Saturday. Temperatures will likely waffle around quite a bit this week and next with the systems moving through, including rising over the weekend into early next week that could be significantly warm.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EDGE OF BIG SYSTEM TUESDAY

A system is pushing by to the south of the Northern Plains but will be close enough to bring through some limited precipitation on Tuesday. Heavy snow is forecast for southeast South Dakota. Temperatures may dip a bit behind the system but will still be mild. Another system will push by to the south late this week but may only clip the far southern areas of the region with snow. Temperatures will rise again behind that system. With the warmth and lack of precipitation, drought continues to be an issue for much of the region, which may grow this week.

WATER LEVELS FALLING BUT STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels started falling on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers late last week and weekend and many areas are free of flooding outside of some smaller areas. However, a very active weather pattern with strong storm systems and potential for heavy rain could ignite some more flooding over the next couple of weeks.

RAIN FOR ONLY PARTS OF CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet-season showers have been consistent in and around Mato Grosso in the middle of Brazil. But other areas have been much drier and hotter, leading harsher conditions for immature corn and soybeans and the newly planted safrinha crop. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend and early next week, which may provide some better showers for southern areas for a time.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February across Argentina, but have also led to a flooding issue in some areas as well. A stalled front and parade of systems will continue to sweep across southern and central areas this week, easing more drought concerns, but potentially causing more flooding concerns as well. Northern areas have not had nearly as much rainfall and high temperatures near or eclipsing 100 degrees Fahrenheit have caused undue stress in these areas for immature corn and soybeans. The front will lift north through the country this weekend, leading to drier conditions next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers went through southern Europe over the weekend, favorable for vegetative winter wheat and other grains in Spain, Italy and parts of southeastern Europe. Showers will continue in Spain most of this week while other areas will be drier, favorable in the northwest, but not for portions of the east that are still too dry. A system will move through the continent this weekend into next week that is forecast to spread showers through much of the winter wheat growing areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA

Cold air and a lack of significant snow cover have been an issue for the Black Sea region over the last couple of weeks, but temperatures will flip this week and be very warm, encouraging green-up in southern locations. However, soils are very dry and greening wheat will find overall poor conditions. The storm track will be across the north this week, favoring some areas of Belarus and northwestern Russia, but with only light amounts forecast in most areas. There appears to be a better chance for meaningful rain next week.

WATCHING TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

It was largely dry and hot in Australia over the weekend, unfavorable for immature crops, but the crop is heading toward maturity with early harvest starting up shortly, if it has not already. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is off the east coast and is forecast to move into southern Queensland later this week, which may produce major impacts for unharvested cotton and sorghum, though coastal areas should get the brunt of the storm.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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