Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Above-normal temperatures in the U.S., increasing showers in central Brazil and heavy rain for parts of Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEST

Temperatures rose in the Midwest over the weekend, becoming quite warm in the west. A couple of clippers brought through some showers around the Great Lakes, but most areas stayed dry. Several clippers will move through this week, but with overall limited precipitation. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week, followed by colder air.

WARM BUT QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures rose in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and some rain fell across eastern Texas. Warm conditions this week will melt the remaining snow. Several clippers will pass by to the north this week, but outside of a few spotty showers, it should be drier. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers.

VERY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures rose well above normal in the Northern Plains this weekend in a massive turnaround since last week. Some limited showers have gone through as well. Clipper systems moving through several times this week may bring some winds and brief showers, but most areas will stay warm and dry this week. Temperatures are likely to fall next week, but not nearly to the same degree we saw last week.

WATER LEVELS CRESTING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

It was largely dry in the Delta over the weekend, allowing water levels to crest in many areas, which continues this week. Southern areas saw rain, though. Water levels should start falling later this week and weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. A drier pattern this week should help the rivers to fall into a more manageable range.

RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Favorable weather over the last couple of weeks has allowed producers to catch up to the normal pace for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting in central Brazil. Some of the corn crop is deemed late-planted, but it is typical for this time of year. However, the drier conditions that have allowed for the progress are somewhat stressful for the newly-planted corn. Showers will be scattered this week, typical for this time of year, though areas in the east and south will have much lower coverage, unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly-planted safrinha crops.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Hot and dry conditions in Argentina over the weekend have been very stressful for corn and soybeans. However, a front moved into the far south on Sunday and will remain in southern states for much of the week. That will produce rounds of rainfall until the front gets pushed north on Thursday or Friday, wiping out the heat. Another system will move through this weekend with more widespread rain. Hot and dry conditions in January and much of February have caused some damage for both corn and soybeans, though more favorable weather is forecast into early March.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers moved through western Europe over the weekend, favorable in Spain, but not in France or the UK. Some rain will spread eastward this week, though drier areas in the east need more than forecast. Western areas are again the focus for heavier rainfall.

COLD AIR IN THE BLACK SEA THREATENS WINTER WHEAT

Cold temperatures in the Black Sea region last week will be slow to erode this week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover, have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill. Limited snowfall this week will not add much protection. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Spotty showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Temperatures are increasing this week and will be stressful for immature cotton and sorghum. Systems will be largely passing by well to the south with limited or no precipitation this week. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to stay well north of the main cotton and sorghum areas, but will be watched to see if it moves into Queensland next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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