Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very cold temperatures rising in the middle of the U.S., limited showers in central Brazil until next week and mixed conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

COLD IN THE MIDWEST, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Cold air continues in the Midwest for the next couple of days, but temperatures will rise this weekend. Above-normal readings are forecast for next week in most areas. Clippers moving through Canada may bring some occasional precipitation and a storm system in the middle of next week may bring some widespread rain with potential for snow. Colder air will filter in behind that system for late next week, and behind a clipper that goes through next weekend.

COLD AIR MODERATING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dangerously cold air remains in the Central and Southern Plains through Friday morning and is threatening livestock and winter wheat with winterkill. Snow that fell earlier this week may help to protect some of the crop, but many areas are uncovered and vulnerable. Temperatures will rise this weekend, and warmer air is forecast for next week, melting the snow. The next system moves through toward the middle of next week, though much of the region is likely to be missed.

ARCTIC CHILL QUICKLY REVERSING THIS WEEKEND IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are rising quickly across the Northern Plains and will be above normal over the weekend, flipping dramatically. Clippers moving through Canada may produce some limited showers into next week, but not a lot of help is expected for the drought, which continues to be a major concern heading into the growing season. March and April weather will be relied upon for producing better precipitation in the region.

WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi's tributaries. The pattern is a little slower for the region through early next week, allowing areas to recover some. However, another system will move through in the middle of next week with more rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL FAVORS FIELDWORK, MORE RAIN NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil are very isolated and have allowed for fieldwork to continue this week. Producers have until Friday to plant safrinha corn before it is considered to be late. Much progress has been made over the last two weeks and the country should be on track for getting close to normal planting pace, especially in Mato Grosso. The states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo have some enhanced precipitation this week, however, limiting progress there. Wet season showers fill back in over central Brazil this weekend and continue next week, unfavorable for fieldwork, but favoring the newly planted corn crop.

HOT AND DRY IN ARGENTINA, RAIN NEXT WEEK

Drier weather is in place across Argentina for the rest of the week and temperatures are high with readings close to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to more stress for those areas with limited soil moisture. A front moves back into southern states on Sunday with needed rain there for several days, which will be helpful. The front is forecast to move north for late next week and weekend, wiping out the heat.

WESTERN EUROPE SEEING RAIN, MORE NEEDED EAST

Drier conditions have been noted across most of Europe this week, though western areas will see a front move through Friday and Saturday with needed rain across Spain and unneeded rain for the UK and France. Eastern areas could use more precipitation before the crop awakens from dormancy. The pattern gets more active for more of the continent next week. Colder air currently in eastern sections of the continent are not a large concern for winterkill for winter wheat, though some areas may be affected. Temperatures will rise going into next week.

COLD AIR IN THE BLACK SEA THREATENS WINTER WHEAT

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the western Black Sea region, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Some light precipitation has been moving through over the winter, but much more is needed to relieve drought. Bursts of light snow into next week won't cut it. Cold air that has moved in could be a concern for some areas that are uncovered by snow, especially around the Caucuses. Temperatures will rise later next week.

RECENT SHOWERS FAVORABLE IN AUSTRALIA, BUT DRIER NOW

Only limited showers are forecast in Australia through next week with systems generally missing most of the country to the south. Immature cotton and sorghum areas that are a little too dry could be stressed with temperatures generally increasing into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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