Ag Weather Forum

Temperatures on Monday morning across the Canadian Prairies and much of the central and eastern United States reminded us that winter is still here even though we're now 11 days from the start of meteorological spring. Meteorological spring is defined as the months of March through May. Low temperatures Monday morning across southern Saskatchewan dipped as low as 40-45 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Parts of North Dakota had temperatures in the minus 30s. Frigid air will overtake much of the eastern half of the U.S. this week, but it won't stick around for long.

The National Weather Service late Monday morning had Extreme Cold Warnings extending from northern North Dakota into central Oklahoma. An Extreme Cold Warning is issued when either dangerously cold air temperatures or wind chills are expected or occurring (https://www.weather.gov/…). Extreme Cold Watches extended even further south into central Texas to warn the public of the low temperatures expected Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.

Through much of last week, some of the lowest temperatures remained trapped in the Canadian Prairies and north-central U.S as an upper-air trough lingered in these areas. This week, the trough will dive farther south as a strong upper-air ridge near the Hudson Bay builds and pushes it south. The upper-air trough is not the only factor contributing to the below-average temperatures. A fresh snowpack can also help temperatures trend a few degrees lower than the forecast temperature.

A band of snow showers extended from western South Dakota into eastern Nebraska on Monday. As of Tuesday morning, snowfall across eastern Nebraska accumulated to nearly 3-6 inches. The same system also expanded into Kansas on Tuesday, providing around 2-4 inches of snow across the northern half of Kansas by mid-morning Tuesday. The fresh snowpack across these states will likely help temperatures fall well-below average through Wednesday.

On Tuesday morning, Bismarck, North Dakota, reported a minimum temperature of minus 38 degrees F with wind chills in the minus 40s. Farther south, Omaha recorded a minimum temperature of minus 9 degrees F with wind chills in the minus 20s. For comparison, the average low temperature in Omaha for Feb. 18 is 20 degrees F. Tuesday's low temperature is nearly 29 degrees F below average. The high temperature on Tuesday for Omaha will be around 3 degrees F and that is nearly 37 degrees F below the average high temperature.

By Thursday and Friday, temperatures in the north-central U.S. will start to see some recovery as well below-average temperatures dive south. The bullseye for the lowest temperature anomalies will be across southeast Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northeast Oklahoma. Low temperatures Thursday morning in Tulsa, Oklahoma, will be around minus 3 degrees F and the high temperature in the afternoon will be near 17 F. No matter how you slice it, these temperatures are going to be downright cold.

Livestock throughout the Plains will need some extra bedding and feed throughout this stretch of colder weather. The Oklahoma Mesonet, which is a network of environmental monitoring stations, has a Cattle Comfort Advisor that provides an estimate for cattle comfort levels based on temperature. You can view the Cattle Comfort Advisor here: https://www.mesonet.org/…. When the Cattle Comfort Advisor is between 15-85 degrees F, that is considered comfortable; however, when it is below minus 20 degrees F, that is considered a cold danger. On Wednesday morning near Tulsa, the forecast Cattle Comfort Advisor has a minimum value of minus 15.3 degrees F.

Luckily, this stretch of cold weather will be relatively short-lived. By Feb. 22, temperatures will start rising above average in the Canadian Prairies. Above-average temperatures are expected to spread south and east throughout next week. Eventually, DTN is forecasting temperatures to be near 15-20 degrees F above average throughout the Northern Plains and northwest Midwest by Feb. 24. Until then, we'll have a short stretch of dangerously cold conditions to deal with this week but an end to this cold is in sight.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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