Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very cold temperatures in the middle of the U.S. this week, limited showers in central Brazil and mixed conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLD IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system went through the Midwest over the weekend with more precipitation and was followed by another blast of extremely cold air, especially in the northwest. A system scraping by across the south is bringing snow Tuesday and light snow will linger through Thursday, especially in the lake-effect areas. Temperatures will rise this weekend, and above-normal readings are forecast for next week in most areas. Clippers moving through Canada may bring some occasional precipitation and a storm system in the middle of next week may bring some widespread rain.

DANGEROUS COLD IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dangerously cold air moved into the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and is threatening livestock and winter wheat with winterkill as most of the crop is uncovered by snow outside of Nebraska. Snow is moving in on Tuesday and may help to protect some of the crop for the rest of the week. Temperatures will rise this weekend, and warmer air is forecast for next week, melting the snow. The next system moves through toward the middle of next week, though much of the region is likely to be missed.

ARCTIC BLAST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Extremely cold air remains in place across the Northern Plains, being dangerously cold for animals and equipment. Those temperatures will be rising through the rest of the week and be above normal over the weekend. Clippers moving through Canada may produce some limited showers into next week, but not a lot of help is expected for the drought, which continues to be a major concern heading into the growing season.

WATER LEVELS HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi River's tributaries. After a system passes by Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern gets a little slower for the region and allow areas to recover somewhat, though another system will move through in the middle of next week with more rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL FAVORS FIELDWORK

Wet season showers in central Brazil are becoming very isolated and will allow for fieldwork to continue. Producers have until the end of the week to plant safrinha corn before it is considered late. Much progress has been made over the last two weeks and the country may be on track for getting close to normal planting pace, especially in Mato Grosso. The states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo will have some enhanced precipitation this week, however, limiting progress there.

HOT AND DRY IN ARGENTINA

Precipitation over the weekend was scattered in Argentina and left some areas dry but hit most areas with needed rainfall going back to late last week. Drier weather is in place for the rest of the week and temperatures will be increasing, leading to more stress for those areas with limited soil moisture. A front moves back into southern states over the weekend or early next week with needed rain there for several days, which will be helpful. The front is forecast to move north for late next week and weekend.

WESTERN EUROPE SEEING RAIN, MORE NEEDED EAST

Drier conditions are found across most of Europe this week, though western areas will see a front move through Friday and Saturday with needed rain across Spain and unneeded rain for the UK and France. Eastern areas could use more precipitation before the crop awakens from dormancy. Colder air in eastern sections of the continent is not a large concern for winterkill for winter wheat, though some areas may be affected.

RECENT SHOWERS FAVORABLE IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through over portions of Australia this weekend, including the west from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zelia. Only limited showers are forecast this week and next with systems generally missing most of the country to the south. Areas that are a little too dry could be stressed with temperatures generally increasing into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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