Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Argentina will continue to see chances for showers into early next week, while scattered showers in central Brazil become more isolated next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WIDESPREAD WINTRY WEATHER IN THE MIDWEST

An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. Another system comes through with more widespread and heavier precipitation on Wednesday. This will likely include more freezing rain and heavy snow. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy, but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems. The northwest may remain on the drier side as all these systems work off to the south and east.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH

Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. A widespread and heavier system is expected to exit on Wednesday and heavy snow is expected across southern Nebraska and the northern half of Kansas. Another system is possible over the weekend, but precipitation could be lighter. Snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

SPOTTY SHOWERS AND COLD AIR FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next 10 days, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

FLOODING RISK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi's tributaries. Another round of heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Saturday and will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil continue all this week. However, showers should not be as intense as earlier this harvest period, instead being more typical of wet season rainfall for this time of year, or even spottier. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late. Heavy rain is possible across southern Brazil as a front could stall across the region this weekend into early next week.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS ARGENTINA INTO THE WEEKEND

A front will continue to slowly drift north through Thursday with scattered showers. There is some potential for areas of heavy rain, but not widespread and likely favoring the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active with another front moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help to at least stabilize the crop.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system may move through this weekend with some needed precipitation and potential snow cover. Cold temperatures may follow and there is some risk for exposed wheat in some areas. Another system could move through late next week as the pattern turns slightly more active.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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