Ag Weather Forum

Last week, I discussed the active pattern then and forecast for this week, noting how the La Nina-influenced pattern was favorable for multiple pieces of energy to produce storm systems across the country. See last week's blog here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Though we've already seen some active weather and impacts over the last week, the most potent storm in the series could be the one that will move out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains later today, Tuesday, Feb. 11. Bringing heavy snow, freezing rain and some strong winds, multiple winter hazards are on the docket from the Central and Southern Plains through the Midwest and Northeast.

This storm will have the best access to Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) moisture and cold temperatures across the Northern Plains to produce a very strong storm system. It will be a quick-developing one, moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday and quickly pushing northeast through the Midwest on Wednesday, then reaching southern Canada and the Northeast on Thursday. The two-day event will feature widespread snow developing from Nebraska to northern Oklahoma, extending northeast through Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan. These states will take the heaviest snow in a band where more than 6 inches is possible. The heaviest snow looks to go from Kansas through lower Michigan, where more than 10 inches will be possible.

Just south of this band, temperatures will be cold enough at the surface to freeze, but warm enough aloft to produce rain. A significant band of freezing rain will develop over in Oklahoma Tuesday into early Wednesday, then extend up through northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Ice amounts up to 0.25 inches will be possible.

Areas in the Central and Northern Appalachians and Northeast will deal with freezing rain and snow, though amounts will not be as significant as farther west. Still, a few inches of snow and glaze of ice will be possible.

Along with the wintry hazards, wind gusts are likely to cause issues on the backside of the system. Though gusts of 25-35 mph are anticipated with this storm, that is still enough to cause issues for those with wet snow and ice accumulations. Winds will be greater in the higher elevations over the Appalachians and Northeast, where some downed trees and powerlines are possible in some spots.

To the south, the cold front to the system will race through the Southeast on Wednesday, bringing the potential for severe storms, mostly in the form of thunderstorm line segments of damaging winds. Heavy rain will also occur in states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, eastern Kentucky and northern Alabama, which may cause some localized flooding.

This goes along with the first impulse, which developed late on Monday, Feb. 10, and continued into Tuesday, Feb. 11, that brought some heavy rain and wintry impacts of its own to the southeastern quadrant of the country. The next system in the pipeline will move into the California coast on Thursday, Feb. 13, bringing multiple wintry impacts to the country through the coming weekend.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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