Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active storm track in the U.S. with three storm systems moving through over the next seven days, typical wet season showers in central Brazil, and chances for more rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system brought a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow to the Midwest over the weekend. A system will scrape through southern areas Monday into Tuesday, while another comes through with more widespread and heavier precipitation right behind it on Wednesday. This will likely include more freezing rain and heavy snow. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy, but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems.

COLDER WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was fairly quiet in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, though cold temperatures did leak south into the region. That cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple bouts of very cold air over the winter. The region will be busier with precipitation, with a system moving through southern areas on Monday and a much more widespread and heavier system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread precipitation, including heavy snow, is expected with this system. Another is possible over the weekend. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air continues to be stuck in the Northern Plains through next week, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

WATER LEVELS STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Heavy precipitation last week brought water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers up higher and will lead to minor flooding in some spots, which may make transportation a little more difficult. A constant barrage of storms moving through this week and next week will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month.

TYPICAL WET SEASON SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil became more widespread across the region over the weekend and continue all this week. However, showers should not be as intense as earlier this harvest period, instead being more typical of wet season rainfall for this time of year, or even spottier. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late.

CHANCES FOR RAIN IN ARGENTINA

It was very hot in Argentina over the weekend with temperatures up around 100 degrees Fahrenheit. A few spotty showers occurred over the south, otherwise it was dry, leading to more stress after last week's beneficial rainfall. A front will move through Monday night through Thursday with scattered showers. There is some potential for areas of heavy rain, but not widespread and likely favoring the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active with another front moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help at least stabilize the crop.

STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN, CENTRAL EUROPE THIS WEEK

Scattered showers continued over western Europe over the weekend. The rain was favorable in Italy and parts of Spain, but not France, where conditions area still too wet and have been for a very long time. Western and central areas are favored with precipitation this week and Spain may benefit from a continued active pattern next week. Areas in the east still remain too dry.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers became scattered in New South Wales, which will help immature cotton and sorghum there. Other areas have been drier, however. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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