DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and a disturbance across the North-Central U.S. The trough will continue to send some energy eastward through Canada and the northern border region through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will build over southern Canada next week and put pressure on the ridge, which will try to oppose it as best as it can, but be forced down into the Southeast. That will cause the trough to continually build across the West and deepen, keeping the storm track busy.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country early-mid next week across the south, another will follow it late next week, while another goes through over the weekend. Cold in the Northwest will likely push south throughout next week, but to what degree is still being worked out. Warmth will try to hold on over the Southeast and could push back northwest ahead of the weekend storm.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...94 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...22 BELOW ZERO AT PHILADELPHIA, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SACRAMENTO, CA 0.77 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and a disturbance across the North-Central U.S. The trough will continue to send some energy eastward through Canada and the northern border region through next week. A trough will build over southern Canada next week and put pressure on the ridge, which will try to oppose it as best as it can, but be forced down into the Southeast. That will cause the trough to continually build across the West and deepen, keeping the storm track busy.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ with the details.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country early-mid next week across the south, another will follow it late next week while another goes through over the weekend. Cold in the Northwest will likely push south throughout next week, but to what degree is still being worked out. Warmth will try to hold on over the Southeast and could push back northwest ahead of the weekend storm.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air will be hard to get rid of this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially Friday into Saturday. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system didn't bring much precipitation on Wednesday. The same is likely to be the case for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month and next week looks more promising for seeing a few storm systems bring through some precipitation. A shot of cold air will move down through the region next week as well and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Another will do something very similar this weekend but with heavier snow across the north.

Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region over the weekend, replacing the general warmth this week. That pushes the storm track to the south, but will still clip at least the southern end of the region with precipitation with a couple storms next week.

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): A system last week caused water levels to rise. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring. Multiple storm systems will move through the Ohio Valley with showers over the next couple of weeks and maintain or increase water levels. At some point, they may get a little too high in some spots.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in central Brazil have been easing up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers are still going across productive areas in the west and south and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through southern areas on Wednesday, bringing through some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather will follow for the rest of this week and weekend. A front will move through early-mid next week, with better chances for rain over northeastern crop areas, which would be beneficial after the last couple of weeks of heat. However, that wouldn't help many other areas. There is potential for more rain farther south later next week or weekend.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): It has been drier for much of this week, though areas in the west will see some showers Friday into next week. That would favor Spain, Italy, and parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat. But France will stay too wet. And areas in the east will remain too dry.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system brought areas of moderate rain and snow earlier this week, but missed others and much more is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. Though temperatures are forecast to be cooler than they have been, there are no risks of significant cold that would be a large concern for winterkill on exposed wheat. However, models are starting to focus on a period mid-to-late February that could be more concerning for cold.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Isolated showers continue to move through southeastern areas this week, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers exiting Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Lake-effect snow Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6= to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday, mostly south. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Areas of drizzle. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, southeast Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to well above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal north and well above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers west. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through west through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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