Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active storm track in the U.S., easing showers in parts of central Brazil and some rain for the driest areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Very warm air is in place across most of the Midwest, though it's colder in the northwest. A system will develop on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region and another will do something very similar this weekend. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region next week, replacing the general warmth this week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A cold front has dropped into the Central and Southern Plains, bringing some milder air to northern areas. But it remains very warm to the south. A system will develop along the front on Wednesday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to the east. The same goes for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. Shots of cold air will move down through the region next week and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will be hard to get rid of in the Northern Plains this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially this week. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.

WATER LEVELS LIKELY STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A system last week caused water levels to rise on the Mississippi River. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring. A system moving through the Corn Belt in the middle of this week and another over the weekend will certainly help this to be realized.

SHOWERS EASING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

Very heavy rainfall over the weekend in central Brazil is likely to have caused delays in soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Showers will ease up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers will still be in the area and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR DRIEST SPOTS IN ARGENTINA

It was hot and dry in Argentina over the weekend and soil moisture and crop conditions likely fell again, including on Monday. A front will move through southern areas through Wednesday, offering chances for some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather will follow for late week and weekend. A front will move through next week, though precipitation chances are uncertain, but unlikely to be very widespread or helpful.

QUIETER IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Very little precipitation is forecast for Europe most of this week, though areas around the Mediterranean may see some additional precipitation late this week and weekend. That would favor Spain, Italy and parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers will move through southeastern Australia this week, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but generally are not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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