Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A typical La Nina pattern in the U.S. this week, waning showers in central Brazil and some rain for the driest areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MOSTLY WARM MIDWEST WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Very warm conditions were noted in the Midwest over the weekend as well as some precipitation over the north. Another streak of snow is moving across northern areas for Monday. A system will develop along the cold front from this system on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Another is likely for the weekend. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region next week, replacing the general warmth this week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. A cold front will drop south into the region on Monday, bringing some milder air to northern areas. A system will develop along the front on Wednesday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to the east. The same goes for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. Shots of cold air will move down through the region next week and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air plunged into the Northern Plains over the weekend and will be hard to get rid of this month. Some streaks of snow went through, which are helpful for the drought situation, but much more is needed. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well.

WATER LEVELS LIKELY STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A system last week caused water levels on the Mississippi River to rise. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL EASING UP THIS WEEK

Very heavy rainfall over the weekend in central Brazil is likely to have caused more delays in soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Showers will ease up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers will still be in the area and could lengthen delays for some. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

SOME RAIN FOR DRIEST SPOTS IN ARGENTINA

It was hot and dry in Argentina over the weekend and soil moisture and crop conditions likely fell again. A couple of fronts will move through southern areas through Wednesday, offering chances for some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of dry weather will follow the second front for late week and weekend. Some additional fronts will be possible next week, though precipitation chances are uncertain.

QUIETER IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Limited showers went through the Mediterranean over the weekend, but most of Europe stayed dry, helping those in the northwest dry out a little bit. Very little precipitation is forecast this week, though areas around the Mediterranean may see some additional precipitation later this week and weekend. That would favor Spain, Italy, southeastern countries, as well as parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers moved through southern and eastern Australia this weekend, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but generally with limited showers. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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