Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An up-and-down temperature forecast in the U.S. including a big arctic air outbreak, and some rain moving through Argentina later this week are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIXED TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDWEST

Lake-effect and a small band of snow continue in the Midwest on Tuesday. Temperatures will rise the next few days, especially in the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring through a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week.

BURST OF ARCTIC COLD HEADING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front and system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday, bringing scattered showers and another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week.

ANOTHER BURST OF ARCTIC COLD COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It should be drier and warmer for most of the week in the Northern Plains until another front moves through on Friday. Scattered light snow will occur behind the front over the weekend, but very cold air will move in for a few days. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in toward the end of the week or weekend.

WATER LEVELS STILL HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help that somewhat.

WETNESS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL MAY START BECOMING A HINDRANCE

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is overall favorable. However, if rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation.

AT LEAST SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little showers and temperatures well above normal in the 90s and 100s, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through later in the week and weekend, but any heavy amounts may be limited. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week.

DRIER IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Drier conditions continue in Europe, with only limited showers moving through the northeast and west at various points over the next couple of weeks. The drier conditions would be more favored across the northwest, but more rain is needed in Spain as well as some other dry areas in the southeast. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

RAIN TARGETING EASTERN AUSTRALIA, OTHERS DRY

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend and continue for the next several days, with limited help for developing cotton and sorghum. Dry areas in the west and south are not getting as lucky with only limited showers and declining soil moisture in these areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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