DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Midwest and another in western Canada and the Northern Plains. The two troughs will move eastward this week and continue with a long and drawn out system throughout the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge should follow the systems for next week, though it will probably allow disturbances to move through the country anyway.

The U.S. and European models are similar for this week but are different for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be warmer in the West and cooler in the east to start the week. A small system may move through early next week and that may bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air east of the Rockies, but the trend will be for warmer temperatures for later in the week. Another storm may gather for later next week and weekend as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...14 AT BERTHOUD PASS, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SIOUX FALLS, SD 1.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Midwest and another in western Canada and the Northern Plains. The two troughs will move eastward this week and continue with a long and drawn out system throughout the week. A ridge should follow the systems for next week, though it will probably allow disturbances to move through the country anyway.

The U.S. and European models are similar for this week but are different for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be warmer in the West and cooler in the east to start the week. A small system may move through early next week and that may bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air east of the Rockies, but the trend will be for warmer temperatures for later in the week. Another storm may gather for later next week and weekend as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A storm is exiting the region Wednesday, which includes some breezy winds in some areas. The storm brought widespread heavy rain to the Dakotas that will help to build some soil moisture in dry areas. Cold air is filling in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong storm system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region early this week, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are and severe storms have been rolling through the region as well.

Later this week, the actual cold front to the system will move through with scattered showers and temperatures will drop significantly into the weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A storm system has already brought heavy rain to western areas, though that also came with some severe weather. As it rolls eastward, it is losing the widespread heavy rainfall, but will still produce rain in areas that do not necessarily need it right now. The main cold front will go sweeping through the region on Thursday and cold air will fill in behind it going into next week. A small system may move through early next week with some showers and another burst of cooler air before temperatures start to rise later next week. Despite some heavier rain, planting is likely to continue at a normal pace.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding recently, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if a small storm system stays north as currently forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to move north through the country this week and showers are getting more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. Heavier rain over the south has been helpful for safrinha corn, but not harvest of full-season crops. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil that still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. The chances for southern areas to get some needed rain in the future is higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system pulled south through the region over the last few days and brought widespread heavy rain. Behind this system though, it will be drier for the next few days. It does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend, however. With more of the corn and soybean crop maturing and awaiting harvest, the wet conditions are not favorable, especially if the weekend system starts up some more active weather again. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system or series of systems is bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of the continent into the weekend. Colder air flowing into much of the continent will produce some spotty frosts that could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting.

France and the UK are still too wet and the pattern does not favor drying them out much.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front that is settling into the region will be bringing some areas good rainfall, but missing others, even though impulses will move through the region going into next week with several impulses and rounds of showers. The wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will be the driest and also warmer. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. The rain could cause delays, but producers there will welcome the rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of the country will be dry into next week. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures well above normal Wednesday, falling Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through early Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday, falling Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers northwest Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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