Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another strong storm for the U.S. that is missing the southwestern Plains and bringing areas of heavy rain, a risk of severe weather, and frost instead, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, and the end of the consistent wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE RAIN, SEVERE STORMS FOR MIDWEST

A long and drawn-out storm system will move through the Midwest this week and produce more widespread precipitation. Areas in the west still in drought will get some good amounts to move through, though wetter areas in the east should as well. Severe storms are also forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will bring some colder air late this week and weekend for a few days but widespread frosts are not forecast in wheat areas. Between the bands of precipitation, planting is likely to start up and delays are likely to be short-lived.

STRONG WINDS, LIMITED RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm system is bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms through the Central and Southern Plains for Monday and Tuesday, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are and severe storms have been rolling through the region as well. Later this week, the actual cold front to the system will move through and temperatures will drop significantly later this week and weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

RAIN THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A storm is bringing widespread showers to the region into Wednesday, which includes some breezy winds in some areas. Cold air will fill in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding in the Delta, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if the busy pattern slows down.

FRONT SHUTTING DOWN WET SEASON SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front will move through Brazil this week and showers will get more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil which still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. Southern areas have seen some improvement lately but are not in great shape either. The chances for this area to get some rain in the future is higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA AFTER BIG STORM

A system pulled south through Argentina over the last few days and brought widespread heavy rain. Behind this system though, it will be much drier. With harvest continuing to increase for corn and soybeans, the drier forecast will be more favorable. However, it does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

A system or series of systems is bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of Europe into the weekend. Colder air will be flowing into much of the continent as well, though frosts are likely to be limited to agricultural lands at higher elevations than most of the region. Still, spotty frosts could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting. France and the UK are still too wet and the pattern does not favor drying them out much.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA

A front that is settling into the Black Sea region will be bringing some areas good rainfall, but missing others, even though the system will be in the region throughout the week and weekend with several impulses and rounds of showers. The wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will be the driest. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. This could cause delays, but producers there will welcome the rainfall. Colder temperatures will be moving in as well, but frosty temperatures are expected to avoid most of the primary wheat areas to the north and west.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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