Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. that is missing the southwestern Plains and bringing a risk of frost instead, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, and the likely end of wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system brought more showers through the southern and eastern Midwest over the last couple of days and continues Friday, as well as some stronger winds that could slow down operations again. Warmer and drier weather this weekend should promote fieldwork, but then another long and drawn-out storm system is forecast for next week that should bring more areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain. The potential for heavier rain over western areas will be helpful for dry soils there. A burst of colder air will fill in behind the system which should last a couple of days. The forecast for frosts is currently not anticipated to affect wheat but could slow down fieldwork and planting operations for a bit again.

ANOTHER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains for the weekend. Another storm system will move through in a couple of pieces next week that should bring more scattered showers through, as well as a burst of colder air. Forecasts are trending toward being cold enough for widespread temperatures below freezing for winter wheat areas later next week. Windy conditions and limited showers could dry out the soil a bit. The storm track for next week is not favorable for bringing widespread rain to the driest areas in the southwest. Despite some heavier rain in streaks elsewhere, planting conditions are fair and should continue to progress between storm systems.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING COLD NEXT WEEK

A larger storm system will move through next week, likely in a couple of pieces, that should bring some scattered showers through the region as well as some snow and a round of much colder air. The cold may persuade producers to slow down planting and fieldwork, but wetter soil is not very widespread through the region and folks may get out and work them anyway. The cold will last a few days later next week before moderating the following week.

HEAVY RAIN IN DELTA DELAYING PLANTING

Heavy rain soaked a large portion of the Delta this week. That has caused localized flooding for the southern half of the region and will slow down planting progress for a while. It will be drier and warmer this weekend, which will help to dry out soil a bit. But the active spring pattern will bring another couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms through next week as well.

FRONT SHUTTING DOWN WET SEASON SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil well into next week. A front will continue to produce areas of showers for southern areas into next week as it meanders around as well. The front will eventually sweep northward next week, and drier conditions will follow behind it for a while. Despite this, the recent weather pattern has been overall favorable for safrinha corn, but the wet season rainfall will be shutting down and fronts moving up from Argentina are going to take over the rainfall events for the rest of the season, which usually stall out in the south. Soil moisture is still well below normal across much of the safrinha corn growing areas, even in the more active pattern of the last couple of weeks.

WET CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA DELAYING FIELDWORK

A front across northern Argentina will produce a storm system along it that will pull south through the country this weekend and early next week, bringing widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms that should include more heavy rain. With corn and soybeans maturing and in the early stages of harvest, the rainfall is not all that beneficial and should start to be a hindrance to operations. However, drier conditions are likely to develop for a period behind that system for probably a week, which will help most areas to dry out.

FRONT AND SYSTEM MOVING INTO EUROPE

A persistent storm track that has brought waves of showers through northern Europe has moved farther off to the north, allowing some of the wetter areas in the northwest to dry out just a little bit. A front and system will move through the continent this weekend and into next week, but favor central, southern, and eastern areas with showers instead of the northwest, which need to dry out. The system will also bring through a burst of cooler air to slow down the progress of winter wheat that has grown too quickly and become vulnerable to frost. The colder temperatures will bring about some areas of frost for a couple of days next week, but mostly to higher elevations. However, some damage may occur in a limited sense.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA

Showers will continue to be limited through the weekend, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a stretch of dry weather over the last several weeks. A front and system will push through the region next week and offer some areas of showers, but the forecast has shifted mostly to the west. A burst of cooler temperatures will move in behind it to slow down winter wheat's growth that has gotten to be too fast for this time of year, but southwestern Russia may stay warm with the western storm track. No frost is currently forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.