Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S., a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, plus widespread showers in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

Widespread areas of rain may have temporarily slowed down some fieldwork in the Midwest, but there are not many areas of the region that are overly wet. Another system developing in the South-Central will bring more rounds of showers through the south and east through Friday, as well as some stronger winds that could slow down operations again. Warmer and drier weather this weekend should promote fieldwork but then another long and drawn-out storm system is forecast for next week that should bring more areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain, as well as a burst of some colder air. The forecast for frosts is currently not anticipated to affect wheat but could slow down fieldwork and planting operations for a bit again.

ANOTHER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system that brought widespread and heavy precipitation to the Southern Plains will move out on Wednesday night, but not before bringing more heavy rain to the southeast. Warm and dry conditions follow for the weekend. Another storm system will move through in a couple of pieces next week that should bring more scattered showers through, as well as a burst of colder air. Forecasts are unsure about the potential for frosts later next week, but windy and limited showers could dry out soil a bit. The Texas Panhandle got some good precipitation out of this last storm, but western Kansas did not and needs more rain as conditions are worsening there. The storm track for next week is not favorable for that to occur. Despite some heavier rain, planting conditions are not all that bad in many spots and should continue to progress between storm systems.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEK

A few showers will move through the Northern Plains on Wednesday, but drier conditions are largely expected throughout the weekend outside of a few minor showers. A larger storm system will move through early next week, likely in a couple of pieces, that should bring some scattered showers through the region as well as a round of colder air. The cold may persuade producers to slow down on planting and fieldwork, but wetter soil is not very widespread through the region and folks may get out and work them anyway.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA DELAYS PLANTING

Heavy rain moved across a large portion of the Delta region over the last couple of days and continues through Thursday as a storm system slowly works through the region. That has caused localized flooding for the southern half of the region and will slow down planting progress for a while. The active spring pattern will bring another couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms through next week as well.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IN BRAZIL NEXT 10 DAYS

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil well into next week. A front will continue to produce areas of showers for southern areas into next week as it meanders around as well. The front will eventually sweep northward next week, and drier conditions will follow behind it for a while. Despite this, the recent weather pattern has been overall favorable for safrinha corn, but the wet-season rainfall will be shutting down soon and fronts moving up from Argentina are going to take over the rainfall events for the rest of the season, which usually stall out in the south. Soil moisture is still well below normal across much of the safrinha corn growing areas, even in the more active pattern of the last couple of weeks.

WET CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA DELAYING FIELDWORK

A front across northern Argentina will draw a storm system along it that will pull south through the country this weekend and early next week, bringing widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms that should include more heavy rain. With corn and soybeans maturing and in the early stages of harvest, the rainfall is not all that beneficial and should start to be a hindrance to operations. However, drier conditions are likely to develop for a period behind that system for probably a week, which will help most areas to dry out.

ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN SLOWING DOWN

A persistent storm track that has brought waves of showers through northern Europe is moving farther off to the north, allowing some of the wetter areas to dry out just a little bit. A front and system will move through the continent this weekend and into next week, but favor central, southern and eastern areas with showers instead of the northwest, which needs to dry out. The system will also bring a needed burst of cooler air, slowing down the progress of winter wheat that has grown too quickly and become vulnerable to frost. The colder temperatures will bring about some areas of frost for a few days next week, which may produce some damage in a limited sense.

SOME RELIEF FORECAST FOR BLACK SEA

Showers will continue to be limited in the Black Sea region throughout this week as much of the widespread showers stay north of the region, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a stretch of dry weather over the last several weeks. A front and system will push through the region next week and may offer some areas of showers as well as a burst of cooler temperatures to slow down winter wheat's growth which has gotten to be too fast for this time of year. The cooler temperatures may bring a risk of frost later next week but probably nothing that would be damaging at this time. Instead, the system may linger in the region later next week and could provide some meaningful precipitation in the cooler temperatures.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.