Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. with another storm system currently in the West, wetter conditions in western Europe, drier conditions in the Black Sea region and widespread showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

The pattern stays active with a burst of showers moving through the Midwest on Sunday and Monday and another system will probably bring widespread showers in the middle of next week. The active pattern helps to build soil moisture ahead of spring planting. Soils have been dry enough to soak it all in, though there has been some brief flooding north of the Ohio River this week. If the pattern continues to be very active with little breaks in the precipitation, we may see some areas having to push back planting, but that risk still seems low at this point.

TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are forecast to move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend with even more widespread showers across the south next week as a system moves through. The pattern is active in April, bringing through multiple chances at building soil moisture ahead of spring planting. Even so, there are no areas in the region that are overly wet, so spring planting is likely to be on time. Instead, some areas are getting missed in the active pattern and drier conditions have developed for wheat in the southwest.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING WET THIS WEEKEND

Far western areas of the Northern Plains will see some showers today and Saturday, but showers will be more widespread throughout the region on Sunday and Monday, including some heavy snow in the High Plains. The increasing precipitation should help with building soil moisture and the lack of snowpack should lead to on-time planting, even if the pattern stays active this spring.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA MAY DELAY PLANTING

Soils are in good shape across most areas of the Delta as spring planting begins. A front will bring a chance for more showers on Sunday and Monday before a bigger system moves through later next week with more widespread and heavier rain. There are some wetter areas from the active storm track, but some larger breaks between storms later this month could lead to more on-time planting.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IN BRAZIL NEXT 10 DAYS

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil through next week. A front moving through this weekend and stalling through next week may be more promising for widespread rainfall across the south. The more active period through next week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down and the country being more reliant on fronts moving through.

STABLE CONDITIONS FOR FILLING CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ARGENTINA

Another front will move through Argentina over the weekend with showers for northern areas with another next week. The active pattern continues with showers for later next week and weekend before starting to dry out. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seem very likely at this point in the year.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A persistent storm track continues to bring waves of showers through northern Europe through the weekend and next week as well. This has been helpful for Spain, but detrimental for France and the UK, which have continued to be too wet in many locations. Temperatures are well above normal, forcing the development of winter wheat and likely starting planting up early. Wheat areas that are drier in the southeast will not fare as well with the hotter and drier conditions.

WHEAT A BIT TOO HOT AND DRY IN BLACK SEA

The active pattern across Europe will only bring isolated showers through the region this week and next, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some top-soil moisture after a dry March. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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