Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S. with heavy rain and severe weather, wetter conditions in western Europe, drier conditions in the Black Sea region and showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR MIDWEST

A series of small disturbances brought bouts of showers into and through the Midwest this weekend, especially in the Ohio Valley which continues and increases for Monday and Tuesday with potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Showers may linger over eastern areas for Wednesday and possibly Thursday and include some snow around the Great Lakes. Afterward, warmer temperatures will move in from the west through the weekend as well as another round of potential showers. Drought areas have been and are receiving more frequent precipitation, helping to limit the effects and build soil moisture before spring planting.

WIDESPREAD RAIN, SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through Nebraska this weekend but most areas were dry. A system moving through Monday will leave early Tuesday. Scattered showers will fall across the region. To go along with the risk of severe weather, there may be some limited beneficial rain in the southwest which has been much drier lately. More showers are forecast to move through this weekend with more next week. The potential for rain is increasing, which could be helpful for winter wheat conditions after last week's hard freeze.

SNOW IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend and snow started to set up in South Dakota on Sunday, which continues Monday. Drier weather follows for most of the region, though western areas could see some showers moving through later this week as a trough spins off to the west. Some of those showers may be more widespread throughout the region on Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures will rise this week, helping to melt the snow and add to soil moisture.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE FOR DELTA

It was dry this weekend in the Delta but soils are in good shape across most areas. A system will move through with a chance for showers on Tuesday with another early next week. Bigger breaks between storms could lead to some planting where it is not too wet.

ACTIVE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF BRAZIL

A front continued with showers across central Brazil over the weekend and will likely continue to produce showers all this week as well. A front moving through southern areas will bring some showers there early this week and another will probably do something similar later this week and weekend. Soil moisture has only increased slightly across central Brazil despite the better rainfall and southern areas are seeing soil moisture decreasing. The more active period through next week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system brought some limited showers through Argentina over the weekend, which continues across the north on Monday. Another system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with more showers. Conditions look to be drier for a period afterward. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing or getting to a point where rainfall is becoming less and less helpful. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seem very likely at this point in the year.

WHEAT A BIT TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

Some showers went through western Russia over the weekend, which were helpful where they occurred since it has been much drier in March. The active pattern across Europe will only bring isolated showers this week, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start across the south.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A persistent storm system in the northeast Atlantic brought waves of showers through western Europe over the weekend, which was helpful for Spain, but detrimental for France, which has continued to be too wet in many locations. The storm will send a bunch of energy through the continent this week, which favors northern areas with showers and increased temperatures. A somewhat similar forecast is lining up for next week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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