GOP Sprint to the Iowa Caucuses

TREYNOR, Iowa (DTN) -- Iowa farmers again have won over most of the leading Republican candidates for president when it comes to biofuels, but farmers also likely will again be caught in the crossfire between saber-rattling with China while the 2024 presidential race plays out.

Iowa Republicans will go to the caucuses on Jan. 15 with the possibility that the Republican nomination could be decided as early as "Super Tuesday" on March 5.

Polls indicate former President Donald Trump has all but locked down the state with more than a 30-point lead over his closest rivals. The race is really for second place in Iowa, largely between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. She also is the former governor of South Carolina.

The race appears closer in New Hampshire which has its primary Jan. 23. In New Hampshire, Trump has as much as a 19-point lead, but at least one recent poll also put Haley significantly closer.

Haley also has a great deal riding on the Feb. 24 primary in her home state of South Carolina where polls still show Trump with a wide lead. Most major political figures in the state, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, back Trump.

The early states also will show whether DeSantis, 45, is still the potential successor to Trump on the right. DeSantis is backed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a situation that has irked Trump. The former president's campaign in mid-December launched ads showing brief clips of Reynolds praising Trump. Reynolds and Trump have since traded barbs over whether she's an unpopular governor or not.

A few issues specific to agriculture include biofuels, policies on China and trade, as well as border security and agricultural guest workers.

CHECKING THE BIOFUELS BOXES

As part of Trump's push to show support for farmers, he came to Iowa in May 2019 and signed an executive order allowing year-round E15. EPA defines E15 as gasoline blended with 10.5% to 15% ethanol. The order was tossed out in court -- and states are still fighting to get E15 year-round. https://www.dtnpf.com/…

While in Congress, DeSantis cosponsored a bill in 2017 that would have ended the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) program.

Still, the Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA) and another Iowa group, Biofuels Vision, sent out press releases in recent weeks stating, "Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate to date that has taken a positive position on all eight topics vital to the future of Iowa farmers and biofuels producers." DeSantis had done a question-and-answer session at a POET-owned plant in Menlo, Iowa, the day before the Dec. 19 release.

"Iowa's corn farmers appreciate Gov. Ron DeSantis' recognition of ethanol and its value to Iowa as a sustainable, homegrown fuel option," said Jolene Riessen, a farmer from Ida Grove and president of ICGA. "In Iowa, we think about the four E's of ethanol: economy, environment, energy security and engine performance -- and with a presidential candidate's support of policies like the Next Generation Fuels Act, many will recognize Iowa as a market leader of sustainable fuel."

When asked by DTN if the news release constituted an endorsement of DeSantis, a spokeswoman for ICGA stated another press release was coming soon showing that Haley had also checked all of the boxes.

Haley, in her Treynor town hall, threw a brief nod to biofuels as she highlighted her strategy to become "energy dominant." Haley said, "That includes biofuels. That means getting the EPA out of the way. They care more now about sage brush lizards than whether we can afford our power bill."

The Biofuels Vision checklist on its website shows Trump has question marks over whether he would "properly enact the RFS, preserve existing biofuels tax credits, adopt U.S. GREET model, unlock higher ethanol blends, or support (a) farm bill with energy title."

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy drew fire in late November from the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) for his opposition to carbon pipelines. The IRFA called him hypocritical because Ramaswamy has backed the Keystone XL petroleum pipeline from Canada, which relied on eminent domain to secure land access.

GETTING TOUGHER ON CHINA

Republican candidates are aggressive in their declarations about how tough they will get on China, one of the top export markets for U.S. farmers. Nearly every GOP candidate has called for revoking normal trade relations with China, or "decoupling."

DeSantis signed a law in Florida that blocks people tied to the Chinese government from buying property near military bases. The Florida law also blocks most investments from Chinese companies in the state. Companies that have Chinese investors, for instance, are barred from any real-estate deals in Florida.

Trump imposed tariffs on China during his presidency that are still in effect. Trump, who has called himself "tariff man," now wants to bar Chinese ownership in the U.S. and block U.S. investments in China as well. He is planning a new round of tariffs on most imported goods, according to the New York Times.

"We will impose stiff penalties on China and other nations as they abuse us," Trump said at a New Hampshire rally, according to the New York Times.

In Iowa, at nearly every rally, Trump says about farmers, "You never did better than under me."

He often says he paid farmers $28 billion from Chinese tariffs. When exports to China fell in 2018-19, Trump ordered then-Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to use the Commodity Credit Corp. (CCC) to provide $23 billion (the actual amount) in payments to farmers in that two-year stretch.

"I think gave the farmers $28 billion straight out of the tariffs that I took out of China. Think about that. Do you think Joe Biden would have even thought about giving you $28 billion?"

China became the top export market for U.S. farmers after the Trump administration reached a temporary trade deal with China. Ag exports to China topped $38.1 billion in 2022 -- a record for one country -- but Chinese agricultural buys have waned in 2023 at just under $23 billion for the first ten months of the year. That falls below both Mexico and Canada.

After meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November, Biden called China a "competitor." Haley, in town halls, said China view the U.S. as an enemy. With that, Haley cites that China owns 400,000 acres of U.S. farmland -- it's 329,000 -- but one thing that needs to happen is stopping the sale of land to China.

"So how do we deal with China? First of all, we stop selling any U.S. soil and we take back the land they already purchased," Haley said in Treynor, drawing applause. "They bought the largest pork producer in the country, right here in Iowa," Haley added, referring to Virginia-based Smithfield Foods.

Tying China to the illegal flow of the drug fentanyl to the U.S., Haley said she also would threaten to revoke normal trade relations as leverage. "We are going end all normal trade relations with you until you stop murdering Americans with fentanyl. You watch how fast they move. They need our economy."

TRUMP, CHAOS AND BORDER SECURITY

Haley walks a fine line of praising Trump and criticizing him, saying Trump "was the right president at the right time. I agree with a lot of his policies. I had a good working relationship with him, but rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. You know I'm right. And we can't have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. You don't fix Democrat chaos with Republican chaos."

Chaos, however, only seems to help Trump in polls. Indictments over classified documents and election interference have solidified his supporters. Trump's recent comments about illegal immigrants, "poisoning the blood of our country," is backed by 42% of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, according to a Des Moines Register poll last week. Another 29% said it does not matter to them. Other comments that he would authorize "sweeping raids, giant camps and mass deportation" are backed by 50% of those polled.

DeSantis, in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, said Trump's comments on immigration aren't helping address the failures of Biden's policies.

"When you start talking about using those types of terms, I don't think that that helps us move the ball forward. I would not put it in those terms," DeSantis said.

DeSantis and Haley have used similar terms on the border, each calling it a "dereliction of duty" by President Joe Biden. Haley said she would require every business to use the federal E-Verify system to ensure their workers are not in the country illegally. Groups such as the American Farm Bureau Federation oppose mandatory E-Verify until a new agricultural guestworker program has been established that admits more guestworkers and allows those workers to remain on a farm year-round.

BOOMER FACTOR

Ramaswamy is a youthful 38; DeSantis is 45 years old; and Haley is 51.

Haley, in her ads and stump speeches, takes direct shots at Biden, 81, on age, and indirectly at Trump, who is 77, as she calls for competency tests for politicians over age 75. In Iowa town halls typically overwhelmed with gray hair, Haley also quickly clarifies she excludes Sen. Chuck Grassley, 90, from her call for competency tests for older politicians -- contrasting Grassley with Biden. Still, she levels her criticism at the older generation, saying they are making national security decisions, and "we need to know they are at the top of their game," she said, adding, "Right now, the U.S. Senate is the most privileged nursing home in the country."

Because of his age, Haley says a vote for Biden is essentially a vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, 59.

A FURIOUS PACE AHEAD.

The campaigning over the next few weeks in Iowa will only ramp up. Trump, for instance, has rallies set for Jan. 5-6 across the state, as do Haley and Ramaswamy, who continues to campaign, but has essentially stopped buying ads in Iowa.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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