Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Temperatures rising and some precipitation going into December with a couple of storm systems, good rain forecast for Argentina, and increasing wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Colder air created lake-effect snow in the Midwest this week, but temperatures are moderating and will go above normal this weekend. Scattered showers will move through with a system Thursday and Friday with more streaks of showers this weekend into early next week. It will be mostly rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help to build soil moisture and ease drought that remains.

SNOW MELTING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures moderating in the Central and Southern Plains this week will go above normal this weekend, so the recent snow that fell will not last much longer. The melting snow should build at least a little soil moisture for wheat. Additional storm systems will pass through the region Thursday through the weekend, which may help to build more soil moisture in eastern areas.

DRIER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It continues to be dry in the Northern Plains this week as clippers pass off to the north and any stronger storms will pass by to the south. One of these clippers may make it through the region with some light showers early next week. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

DELTA WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN

The Delta is starting to become more active, with more systems lining up to move through late this week, weekend, and possibly next week as well. The pattern favors drought reduction and increases to water levels on the Mississippi River, though the latter effect may be slow.

INCREASING RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue in central Brazil, but at a reduced coverage and intensity thanks to El Nino. Forecasts have these showers picking up again this weekend as a front moves into the region, beneficial for soybean development. Southern Brazil continues to see too much rain for developing corn and soybeans, especially in Parana. But the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul did see a break over the weekend and precipitation looks more limited here for the next couple of days. Any break is beneficial to help soils drain. A front moving through this weekend could bring some heavier rain back through, though.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A front will continue to bring scattered showers to Argentina on Wednesday and another follows closely behind it for Thursday and Friday, bringing good rainfall to much of the country's growing regions. Additional showers may continue in some areas over the weekend and next week as well. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

STILL WET, COLDER IN EUROPE

The pattern stays active across Europe this week, but will also include Spain, which should help to ease precipitation deficits there. Colder temperatures across the north will be pushing wheat into dormancy and the precipitation will be falling as snow.

WHEAT GOING DORMANT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Frequent precipitation in the Black Sea region over the last couple of months has brought drier areas into a much better situation for winter wheat, which is going dormant in mostly good condition. Far southern areas are a little warmer and may still benefit from the active weather to put down some good roots. The 2024 crop is in very good shape.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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