DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into California. A ridge is found over the Rockies. The eastern trough will deepen over Hudson Bay the next few days while the other features shift eastward. The ridge will get squeezed into the Southeast where it will build through the weekend. The Hudson Bay trough will largely shear apart this weekend and the connection to the arctic will be dissolved.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will still move east next week but will have less of a cold punch with it. A ridge will develop behind it in the West but the pattern will be progressive as another trough moves through next weekend.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be near or above normal through the period, but a little cooler on the East Coast behind a clipper that moves through early in the week. Some scattered showers will be possible, but overall light. Another system will move through Canada mid-late next week with scattered precipitation expected there and also in the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. An associated front moving through the country next weekend could bring some precipitation with it.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...78 AT PHOENIX, AZ AND CATALINA FOOTHILLS, AZ

LOW TUE...32 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...ERIE, PA 0.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into California. A ridge is found over the Rockies. The eastern trough will deepen over Hudson Bay the next few days while the other features shift eastward. The ridge will get squeezed into the Southeast where it will build through the weekend. The Hudson Bay trough will largely shear apart this weekend and the connection to the arctic will be dissolved. The western trough will still move east next week but will have less of a cold punch with it. A ridge will develop behind it in the West but the pattern will be progressive as another trough moves through next weekend.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be near or above normal through the period, but a little cooler on the East Coast behind a clipper that moves through early in the week. Some scattered showers will be possible, but overall light. Another system will move through Canada mid-late next week with scattered precipitation expected there and also in the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. An associated front moving through the country next weekend could bring some precipitation with it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It continues to be dry this week as clippers pass off to the north and any stronger storms will pass by to the south. One of these clippers may make it through the region with some light showers early next week. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures moderating this week will go above normal this weekend, so the recent snow that fell will not last long. The melting snow should build at least a little soil moisture for wheat. Additional storm systems will pass through the region Thursday through the weekend, which may help to build more soil moisture in eastern areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder air created lake-effect snow this week, but temperatures are moderating and will go above normal this weekend.

Scattered showers will move through with a system Thursday and Friday with more streaks of showers this weekend into early next week. It will be mostly rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help to build soil moisture and ease drought that remains.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The region is starting to become more active, with more systems lining up to move through late this week, weekend, and possibly next week as well. The pattern favors drought reduction and increases to water levels on the Mississippi River, though the latter effect may be slow.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue in central Brazil, but at a reduced coverage and intensity thanks to El Nino. Forecasts have these showers picking up again this weekend as a front moves into the region, beneficial for soybean development. Southern Brazil continues to see too much rain for developing corn and soybeans, especially in Parana. But the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul did see a break over the weekend and precipitation looks more limited here for the next couple of days. Any break is beneficial to help soils drain. A front moving through this weekend could bring some heavier rain back through, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to bring scattered showers Wednesday and another follows closely behind it for Thursday and Friday, bringing good rainfall to much of the country's growing regions.

Additional showers may continue in some areas over the weekend and next week as well. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The pattern stays active this week, but will also include Spain, which should help to ease deficits there. Colder temperatures across the north will be pushing wheat into dormancy and the precipitation will be falling as snow.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Frequent precipitation over the last couple of months has brought drier areas into a much better situation for winter wheat, which is going dormant in mostly good condition. Far southern areas are a little warmer and may still benefit from the active weather to put down some good roots. The

2024 crop is in very good shape.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over eastern areas through Friday, helping to ease extremely dry conditions in a lot of this part of the country. It is too late for wheat and canola, which is delaying harvest and could cause quality issues instead, but will help developing cotton and sorghum. Western areas continue to be too dry with little precipitation forecast for the next week and eastern areas will join them next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Lake-effect snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers south Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Light snow north ending Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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