Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Temperatures rising going into December with a couple of storm systems, a break in the rain for parts of southern Brazil and increasing wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, THEN RAIN FOR MIDWEST

Colder air pushed into the Midwest this weekend, creating lake-effect snow through Wednesday, but temperatures will then moderate and go above normal this weekend. Scattered showers will move through with a system late this week and another this weekend into early next week, but mostly as rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help to build soil moisture and ease the drought that remains.

SNOW MELTING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures dropped over the snow that fell this weekend in the Central Plains. Temperatures moderating this week will go above normal this weekend, so the snow will not last long. The melting snow should build at least a little soil moisture for wheat. Additional storm systems will pass through the region late this week, weekend and possibly next week, favoring the elimination of drought and building of soil moisture.

DRIER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It will be largely dry in the Northern Plains this week as clippers pass off to the north and any stronger storms will pass by to the south. One of these clippers may make it through the region with some light showers early next week. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

DELTA WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN

A system moved through the Delta this weekend with some light showers. The region is starting to become more active with systems lining up to move through late this week, weekend and possibly next week as well. The pattern favors drought reduction and increases in water levels on the Mississippi River, though the latter effect may be slow.

INCREASING RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue in central Brazil but at a reduced coverage and intensity thanks to El Nino. Forecasts have these showers picking up again this weekend as a front moves into the region, beneficial for soybean development. Southern Brazil continues to see too much rain for developing corn and soybeans, especially in Parana. But the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul did see a break over the weekend and precipitation looks more limited here for the week. Any break would be beneficial to help soils drain. A front moving through this weekend could bring some heavier rain, though.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A drier stretch continued in Argentina over the weekend with little or no rainfall for the last week. However, a front will go through with scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday and another follows closely behind it for Thursday and Friday, bringing good rainfall to much of the country's growing regions. Additional showers may continue in some areas over the weekend and next week as well. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

STILL WET, COLDER IN EUROPE

Scattered showers fell in a lot of Europe again over the weekend except in Spain, where it has been too dry recently. The pattern stays active this week, but will also include Spain, which should help to ease deficits there. Colder temperatures across the north will be pushing wheat into dormancy and the precipitation will be falling as snow.

WHEAT GOING DORMANT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Frequent precipitation over the last couple of months has brought drier areas of the Black Sea region into a much better situation for winter wheat, which is going dormant in mostly good condition. Far southern areas are a little warmer and may still benefit from the active weather to put down some good roots. The 2024 crop is in very good shape.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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