Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Temperatures rising going into December, a break in the rain for parts of southern Brazil, and increasing wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST

A system passed through the Midwest this weekend and brought widespread precipitation, moderate in some areas. Snowfall was light and will not last long in most areas. Colder air pressed into the region and will create lake-effect snow through midweek, but temperatures will then moderate and go above normal this weekend. Scattered showers will move through with a system late this week and with another this weekend into early next week, but mostly as rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help build soil moisture and ease remaining drought.

SNOW MELTING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Moderate to heavy snow fell in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Temperatures became cold over the snow but some of it already started to melt away Sunday. With temperatures moderating this week and going above normal this weekend, the snow will not last long and should build at least a little soil moisture for wheat as it starts to go dormant. Additional storm systems will pass through the region late this week, weekend, and next week, favoring the elimination of drought and building of soil moisture.

RISING TEMPERATURES, DRIER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some light snow moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend. It will largely be dry this week as clippers pass off to the north and any stronger storms will pass by to the south. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

DELTA WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN

A system moved through the Delta this weekend with some light showers. The region is starting to become more active, with more systems lining up to move through late this week, weekend, and next week as well. The pattern favors drought reduction and increases to water levels on the Mississippi River, though the latter effect may be slow.

INCREASING RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue in central Brazil, typical of the wet season, but at a reduced coverage and intensity thanks to El Nino. Forecasts have these showers picking up again this weekend as a front moves into the region. Southern Brazil continues to see too much rain for developing corn and soybeans, especially in Parana, but the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul did see a break over the weekend and precipitation this week looks more limited here, even with the front moving through late week.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A drier stretch continued in Argentina over the weekend with little or no rainfall for the last several days in the country. However, a front will go through with scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, and another follows closely behind it for Thursday and Friday, bringing good rainfall to much of the country's growing regions. Additional showers may continue in some areas over the weekend and next week as well. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

STILL WET, COLDER IN EUROPE

Scattered showers fell in a lot of Europe again over the weekend except in Spain, where it has been too dry recently. The pattern stays active this week, but will also include Spain, which should help to ease deficits there. Colder temperatures across the north will be pushing wheat into dormancy and the precipitation will be falling as snow.

WHEAT GOING DORMANT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Frequent precipitation in the Black Sea region over the last couple of months has brought drier areas into a much better situation for winter wheat, which is going dormant in mostly good condition. Far southern areas are a little warmer and may still benefit from the active weather to put down some good roots. The 2024 crop is in very good shape.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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