Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Colder temperatures and snow in the Plains, heavy rain in southern Brazil and typical wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COOLER FOR MIDWEST

A strong cold front moved through the Midwest on Thursday, bringing seasonably cool air into the region. A system will move through this weekend and another punch of cold air will follow for a couple of days, producing lake-effect snow early next week. Afterward, the region will go on a warming trend going into early December. Another couple of systems may move through the region late next week and weekend with scattered showers, which could help to build soil moisture.

SNOW IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A cold front continues to drop south through the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Snow has developed behind the front and a system forming in the showers will build some heavier snowfall potential for the Central Plains states into early Sunday before exiting. Southwestern areas that are drier will receive at least some accumulation, and although it may come in the form of snow, it will be welcomed to build some soil moisture for winter wheat before it goes dormant. The snow may hold back temperatures from rising faster than in other areas of the country next week but should melt and turn into good soil moisture. Another couple of systems are possible to bring showers through late next week and next weekend.

RISING TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A cold front brought in some cold temperatures to the Northern Plains for Thanksgiving, but they won't last long as temperatures rise next week and may be consistently above normal for early December. A couple of clippers may glance through the region this weekend and early next week with some light snow, but accumulation will be tough to come by. Other systems look to miss the region later next week and weekend mostly.

DELTA WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN

A disturbance moving through the Gulf brought some light showers to the southern Delta on Thursday, but most areas have been dry the last several days. Another system will move through on Sunday with scattered showers, and potential for moderate rain in the southern drought areas. Another couple of systems could move through with decent precipitation late next week and again next weekend, as the El Nino pattern starts to promote a southern storm track that could benefit the region. Precipitation farther north from earlier this week is starting to make its way through the Lower Mississippi River, which will see a decent rise in levels going into next week. But the river continues to be low and more precipitation is needed to increase water levels.

TYPICAL RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue in central Brazil, more typical of the wet season. Deficits are large and will take time to correct, but the rain is beneficial for developing soybeans after the long dry period to start the season. Showers may be more isolated for next week but will stick around the region. The state of Rio Grande do Sul only got moderate rain with a front that came through and the heavier rainfall has now focused on a touch farther north in Parana, allowing the far south to dry out a touch, more beneficial for developing corn and soybeans that need a break from the heavy rain. Heavy rain in Parana would not be a good thing for many producers there that have been too wet as well.

DRIER ARGENTINA TO SEE RAIN NEXT WEEK

A drier stretch will continue in Argentina through Monday. But another front moving through Tuesday and Wednesday, and another following quickly behind it for late next week should bring good rainfall back into and through the country, favorable for planting and developing corn and soybeans.

STILL WET IN A LOT OF EUROPE

Dryness continues to build in Spain, but the rest of Europe has been much wetter in recent weeks. Another system is spreading showers through most of the continent outside of Spain going into the weekend and also sending temperatures below normal, edging winter crops into dormancy mostly in good condition. Another couple of systems will move through next week, which are likely to bring some showers to Spain as well as the rest of the continent.

WHEAT GOING DORMANT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

With colder air settling in over most of the Black Sea region, winter wheat is going into dormancy in mostly good condition as systems continue to bring consistent precipitation through the region. Warmer temperatures in southwestern Russia are allowing crops an extended window before going dormant to use the rainfall happening there. The 2024 crop is in very good shape.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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