Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system moving through the U.S. and followed by colder temperatures and snow in the Plains, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and a week of favorable rain in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

RAIN ENDING IN MIDWEST

A system continues to bring widespread rain through the eastern Midwest on Tuesday, easing drought in some areas, but delaying the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A stronger cold front will move through later this week with a burst of colder air. More showers may move through this weekend but are forecast to be light.

SNOW COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers to mostly eastern sections of the Central and Southern Plains over the last few days. Those showers largely missed drier western wheat areas, unfavorable for wheat there. Another system may bring showers to Texas Thursday and a cold front dropping south could bring moderate or heavy snow and a burst of much colder air. A system may form along that front and push eastward over the weekend. Drier areas in the southwest may pick up some precipitation out of this, mostly in the form of snow, but otherwise helpful.

MIXED TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SNOW WEST

A cold front will sag south through the Northern Plains on Wednesday, bringing snow to western areas and a sharp drop in temperatures below normal. A reinforcing shot of colder air is possible this weekend into next week.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE DELTA

A system brought widespread moderate to locally heavy rain to the Delta on Monday that will produce limited benefits to drought. The rain farther north will help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but it is still very dry and the river will run low for a while yet.

TYPICAL RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Heavy rain, more typical of the wet season showers in central Brazil, will continue all week long. Deficits are large here and will take more than a week's worth of normal rainfall to turn around, but will be beneficial for developing soybeans. Showers do look like they are more isolated for next week. Another round of heavier rain will move back into southern Brazil for Wednesday and Thursday, with potential for more this weekend. Any breaks from the wet pattern are looking to be short across the south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA DRIER AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH

A front will move through Argentina Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers but then be drier again until next week. Though the dryness is not welcome, soil conditions are more favorable than they were earlier this season or in previous years, a good turnaround in conditions. If the drier weather does not last too long, the overall favorable conditions continue. Rain is forecast to move back through early-to-mid next week.

STILL WET IN A LOT OF EUROPE

Scattered showers continued over much of Europe again this weekend, keeping soil moisture high for most areas outside of Spain, where dryness is starting to creep in again. Showers continue across southern areas early this week while a system will go through the northeast later this week and bring down temperatures across most of the continent. A somewhat active pattern continues across the continent next week. Some areas could use a break to allow for more planting and sunlight, but conditions continue to be overall very favorable for winter wheat establishment.

OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR THE BLACK SEA

A system moved through the Black Sea region with scattered showers this weekend, which included snow in some areas. Colder air will continue to be more common than not, edging winter wheat toward dormancy but in mostly good condition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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