Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system moving through the U.S. and followed by colder temperatures, heavy rain in southern Brazil and at least a week of favorable rain in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SYSTEM, SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system brought showers into southwestern areas of the Midwest on Sunday with a system that will push northeast through much of the region early this week. A stronger cold front will move through later this week with a burst of colder air. Models disagree on whether the front will produce precipitation. Any precipitation now will delay the remaining harvest and fieldwork but increase soil moisture for winter wheat before it goes dormant.

ACTIVE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved into the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday and brought widespread showers. Those showers largely missed drier western wheat areas, unfavorable for wheat there, but eastern areas saw good rainfall. The rain pulls out on Monday. Another system may bring showers to southern areas late in the week and a cold front dropping south could bring highland snow and a burst of much colder air for the weekend into next week.

MIXED TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT MOSTLY DRY

In the Northern Plains, a system tracking to the south was close enough to get some rain into South Dakota on Sunday. Some showers continue over the eastern Dakotas on Monday, but it is looking drier, even with a cold front sagging south on Wednesday. That front could bring some highland snow and a sharp drop in temperatures below normal. A reinforcing shot of colder air is possible this weekend into next week.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend. A system will move through Monday with scattered showers that will produce limited benefits to drought and severe weather potential across the south. The rain farther north will help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but it is still very dry and the river will run low for a while yet.

TYPICAL RAINFALL, FINALLY, FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Heavy rain from southern Brazil started to work northward this weekend. Those showers will be more typical of the wet season rains in central Brazil all week long. Deficits are large here and will take more than a week's worth of normal rainfall to turn around. Showers look to become more isolated for next week. Another round of heavier rain will move back into southern Brazil midweek. Any breaks from the wet pattern are still looking to be short across the south, also unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA A LITTLE DRIER THIS WEEK

Showers were more limited in Argentina this weekend. A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers but then be drier again until next week. Though the dryness is not welcome, soil conditions are more favorable than they were earlier this year or in previous years, a good turnaround in conditions. If the drier weather does not last too long, the overall favorable conditions continue.

STILL WET IN A LOT OF EUROPE

Scattered showers continued over much of Europe again this weekend, keeping soil moisture high for most areas outside of Spain, where dryness is starting to be noticeable again. Showers continue across southern areas early this week while a system will go through the northeast later this week. A more active pattern across the continent continues next week. Some areas could use a break to allow for more planting and sunlight for establishment, but conditions continue to be overall very favorable for winter wheat establishment.

OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR THE BLACK SEA

A system moved through the Black Sea region with scattered showers this weekend, which included snow in some areas. Colder air will continue to be more common than not, edging winter wheat toward dormancy but in mostly good condition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.