Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system moving into the Plains this weekend followed by cold temperatures, heavy rain in southern Brazil and a return of rain to central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MIDWEST

A front moving through the Midwest Friday is bringing some rain to eastern areas as well as a brief shot of some cooler air. Temperatures will rise over the weekend, though. A system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter. Cold air over the Great Lakes means risks for multiple days of lake-effect snow, slowing down remaining fieldwork and harvest in these areas.

SYSTEM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

A system will move out of the Southwest and into the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, bringing scattered showers to much of the region and helping winter wheat where the showers hit. Not all areas will see needed rain, though. Cold temperatures will follow the system next week, which could be significantly cold and nudge winter wheat to dormancy.

WARM THROUGH WEEKEND, THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will track to the south of the Northern Plains this weekend but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow next week and be significantly below normal. Some snow may fall in colder temperatures.

SYSTEM NEXT WEEK FOR DELTA

A system in the Gulf produced showers for the southern Delta recently, which may ease drought a little. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through. Cold air follows that system.

CENTRAL BRAZIL GETTING WETTER

Heavy rain continues over southern Brazil while central Brazil has been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. Dryness and heat in the central area have been very stressful for developing soybeans and are causing a need for replanting while wetness across the south is causing flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south next week.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers will move through Argentina over the next couple of weeks, though the amount of rain will be lower to end November. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits. Still, most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across Europe continues into early next week. The pattern may change a bit next week with a focus farther north and in the Mediterranean, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region at times. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet, especially across the south.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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