Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system moving into the Plains this weekend, good rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and a return of rain to central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

CONTINUED WARMTH FOR MIDWEST

Warm temperatures and dry conditions should lead to good conditions for remaining harvest and fieldwork for the next couple of days in the Midwest. A front moving through Friday could bring rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter.

SYSTEM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Most of the Central and Southern Plains will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer and drier conditions continue in the Northern Plains for most of the week, favoring remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow next week.

DRY AGAIN FOR DELTA

A system in the Gulf produced showers for southern areas of the Delta the last few days, which may ease drought a little. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through.

CHANGES TO BRAZIL'S WEATHER PATTERN

Heavy rain continues over southern Brazil while central areas have been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. The same pattern continues the next few days, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the central area will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers will move through Argentina over the next couple of weeks, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits, but most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across Europe continues this week. The pattern may change a bit next week with a focus farther north and in the Mediterranean, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region at times. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed crops in much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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